Global Exploration Signaling ‘Early Recovery’

Global exploration is signaling an “early recovery”, according to an Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) statement sent to Rigzone by the Enverus team recently.

The statement, which highlighted that Enverus was releasing a new global exploration outlook, said EIR “finds that, while global exploration and appraisal activity in 2025 remained near historical lows, long lead indicators such as block awards, new country entries and increased seismic surveying point to a gradual recovery forming from a very low base”.

“Despite depressed activity levels, exploration success rates have held steady in the 30 percent to 40 percent range, underscoring a continued focus on prospect high grading, capital discipline and risk weighted exploration strategies,” it added.

EIR’s statement noted that offshore exploration accounted for more than 50 percent of total activity in 2025, “driven by infrastructure led exploration and renewed focus on higher impact opportunities”.

It also said supermajors and national oil companies are leading the exploration recovery, “particularly in acquiring new acreage in regions where subsurface potential for giant discoveries is matched by above ground conditions that support faster project advancement”. Independent and junior explorers are increasing participation, according to the statement, “signaling broader industry reengagement beyond supermajors and national oil companies”.

EIR noted in the statement that it expects “the slow recovery to contribute to a structural supply gap after 2030, as limited exploration today constrains future project pipelines and resource replacement”.

EIR Director Patrick Rutty said in the statement, “exploration is not rebounding quickly, but the early indicators are clearly improving”.

“Given recent drilling success and diminished concerns over peak demand, the industry is reprioritizing exploration, a dynamic that should drive resource capture to relatively high levels over the next five years but does not yet negate the risk of a structural supply gap later this decade,” he added.

In a press note sent to Rigzone last month, Wood Mackenzie projected that global upstream exploration spending will “dip below the $20 billion annual average of the last five years as low oil prices pressure the sector”.

“Appetites for strategic growth remain strong, but companies are focusing on selective high-impact drilling rather than broad-based spending,” Wood Mackenzie said in that note.

“Major oil companies are pursuing giant field redevelopment partnerships with national oil companies to secure discovered resources without exploration risk,” the company added.

“The exploration landscape is shifting from traditional licensing rounds toward government to government deals and direct negotiation. Ocean Bottom Node seismic technology and artificial intelligence are compressing decision timelines from months to weeks,” it continued.

In the note, Andrew Latham, Senior Vice President, Energy Research at Wood Mackenzie, said the upstream sector “is recalibrating its approach to resource capture in 2026”.

“Exploration spending remains disciplined, but the industry is pursuing multiple pathways to growth, from play-opening wildcats in the Atlantic margin to unlocking billions of barrels from producing fields through IOC-NOC partnerships,” he added.

“Technology is accelerating both discovery and development of conventional hydrocarbons,” he went on to state.

In a release sent to Rigzone last month, Rystad noted that high-impact wildcat drilling activity is “expected to remain elevated following a solid 2025”.

“Last year, the success rate for high-impact wildcat wells rose to 38 percent from 23 precent in 2024, while total discovered volumes increased by 53 percent year on year to around 2.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent, according to Rystad Energy’s research and analysis,” Rystad added.

EIR describes itself as a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. Wood Mackenzie describes itself as “the global insight business for renewables, energy and natural resources”. Rystad Energy is an independent research and energy intelligence company, its site states.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com