Trade between the United States and China remains well below pre-tariff levels, but new data suggest parts of the relationship may be stabilizing after a turbulent year.
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The analysis from Project44 shows that U.S. exports to China improved in December, marking the first year-over-year increase after months of steady declines. While the rebound was modest, it stands out after much of 2025 was defined by sharp drops tied to new tariffs and shifting trade policy.
Imports from China, however, continue to trail far behind earlier levels. Volumes remain well below last year’s levels, reflecting how tariffs have reshaped sourcing decisions and pushed many companies to pull back from manufacturing in China. Even as exports show early signs of recovery, imports have yet to follow the same path.
The tariff fallout has also been felt on the ocean shipping side. Earlier in 2025, blank sailings surged as carriers reacted to sudden shifts in demand and uncertainty about trade rules. By the end of the year, those cancellations had dropped sharply from their spring peak, suggesting carriers and shippers are beginning to settle into more predictable shipping patterns.
That stability remains fragile. Blank sailings edged up again late in the year, compared with November, a reminder that ocean networks remain sensitive to policy shifts, uneven demand, and lingering uncertainty about global trade flows.
The report also points to ongoing changes in sourcing strategies. As trade with China remains soft, countries such as Indonesia and Thailand have continued to gain share as alternative sourcing locations for U.S. imports. While Thailand saw a slight dip in December, both countries posted gains over the year as companies worked to diversify their supplier bases.
Looking ahead, uncertainty still clouds the picture. Legal challenges tied to tariff authority and pending court decisions could affect how duties are applied in the future. Those risks leave open the possibility of further shifts in trade flows, even as carriers and shippers adapt to what has become a new, lower-volume baseline for U.S.–China trade.
