Expiring September Natural Gas Contract Rose 15 Cents

The expiring September natural gas contract rose 15.0 cents to roll off the board at $2.867 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) yesterday, sparking a relief rally across the NYMEX curve.

That’s what Eli Rubin, an energy analyst at EBW Analytics Group, said in a report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Thursday. Rubin added in the report, however, that “fundamentally … the near-term outlook remains mired in mild weather and an anticipated surge in the storage surplus vs. five-year average above 200 billion cubic feet in early September”.

“Production readings retreated early this week, contributing to the case for upside, with Marcellus spot pricing suggestive of producers curtailing supply on the margins. It is unclear whether recently softer Permian output figures are sustainable, however,” Rubin noted in the report.

Rubin went on to state in the report that yesterday’s rally increases the stakes for this morning’s U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report.

“Consensus expectations suggest a 25-29 billion cubic feet injection,” Rubin said.

“A second straight bullish EIA surprise may extend yesterday’s relief rally – but a bearish surprise may quash nascent upside. Traders may also be slow to establish sizable short-term positions heading into the Labor Day holiday weekend,” he added.

The EIA’s latest weekly natural gas storage report at the time of writing was released on August 21 and included data for the week ending August 15. That report stated that “working gas in storage was 3,199 billion cubic feet as of Friday, August 15, 2025, according to EIA estimates”.

“This represents a net increase of 13 billion cubic feet from the previous week. Stocks were 95 billion cubic feet less than last year at this time and 174 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 3,025 billion cubic feet. At 3,199 billion cubic feet, total working gas is within the five-year historical range,” that report added.

The EIA’s next weekly natural gas storage report is scheduled to be released on August 28. It will include data for the week ending August 22.

In a separate EBW report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Wednesday, Rubin highlighted that September contract pricing on Wednesday morning traded within a penny of Friday’s close “as the market attempt[ed]… to shake off the loss of 18 CDDs [Cooling Degree Days]”.

“Still, we note 2025 contract expiries to date averaged a 16.1 cent move as liquidity has thinned into final settlement,” he added.

Rubin noted in that report that “extreme weather weakness is predominant – shedding 48 CDDs since August 15th –  heading into the Labor Day holiday. Falling Northeast spot pricing is raising the specter of price-induced supply curtailments – offering chances for sentiment to bottom,” he continued.

The EBW energy analyst went on to warn in that report that “fundamentals remain weak with a rebounding storage surplus to five-year norms compounded by September weather weakness”.

“Tropical threats lurk. However, hints of lower production, strong LNG expectations, and chances for weather to improve over the next 30-45 days may lay the groundwork for storage surpluses to thin into October and a NYMEX rebound in mid-to-late autumn,” he added.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Hurricane Center is tracking two weather disturbances in the Atlantic on its website at the time of writing. One of these is post-tropical cyclone Fernand, which the NHC site showed had maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour as of 9am GMT on August 28.

The other is a disturbance in the eastern tropical Atlantic. This disturbance had a 20 percent chance of cyclone formation in seven days as of 8am EDT on August 28, according to the NHC site.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com