Geopolitical risk raced back into oil markets last week with Israel’s strikes on Iran, and Donald Trump’s uncertainty about how he will react is only going to create more volatility in oil prices.
Friday, June 20th, 2025
The unpredictable nature of the Israel-Iran conflict has seen Brent bounce in a wide range of $70.56 to $79.04 per barrel this week, set for a slightly bearish closing around $77 per barrel after the Trump administration pushed out the timeline of its potential involvement in the Gulf. US Federal Reserve decisions, OPEC+ policy, Chinese imports – all the usual bullish factors – have been on the back burner this week as the outcome of the Israel-Iran row will dictate further price movements.
Iran Discounts Its Oil to Expedite Sales. Sellers of Iranian crude oil to China have slashed their prices, offering discounts of 3.50 per barrel below ICE Brent for prompt July-delivery cargoes, seeking to expedite the pace of exports as Shandong ‘teapot’ refineries struggle with high oil prices.
Chevron Eyes Full Singapore Divestment. US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) sought non-binding bids for its remaining 50% stake in the 290,000 b/d Singapore refinery it jointly operates with PetroChina (SHA:601857), eyeing to sell most of its Southeast Asian assets amidst a wider divestment drive.
Kazakhstan Denies OPEC+ Exit. The government of Kazakhstan refuted reports that it is considering an exit from OPEC+, despite a recurring overproduction problem that saw May output average 1.803 million b/d, some 21% or 325,000 b/d above its quota, angering other producers within the oil group.
The UK Tries Hard to Kill All North Sea Exploration. The UK government has issued a new set of stringent environmental rules for new fossil fuel projects, demanding that so-called Scope 3 emissions (from using the fuels extracted) must be included in any project’s environmental impact assessment.
Canada Readies to Become LNG Exporter. Canada could witness its first ever LNG cargo soon as the $40 billion LNG Canada project begins its commissioning procedures, with the cooling down of 6.5 mtpa capacity Train 1 starting this Monday and ending Sunday, pushing the country’s AECO prices higher.
Israel Shuts Its Only Operational Refinery. Israeli refiner Bazan was forced to temporarily shutter its 197,000 b/d Haifa refinery after an Iranian missile struck its dedicated power plant, leaving Israel with no operational refining as the other plant, the 110,000 b/d Ashdod refinery, is undergoing maintenance.
Petronas Becomes Suriname’s Drilling Champion. Petronas, the national oil company of Malaysia, has signed a deal to develop Suriname’s offshore Block 66, marking the fourth block to be operated exclusively by the NOC and becoming the most important E&P acreage holder in the country.
Mozambique Mulls Lifting LNG Force Majeure. The government of Mozambique has expressed readiness to lift force majeure on the construction of TotalEnergies’ (NYSE:TTE) 20 billion Mozambique LNG project, in place since an Islamic State attack in April 2021, seeking to launch the plant by 2029.
Libya Raises Concerns over Greece’s Oil Exploration. Libya’s Tripoli government has objected to Greece’s exploration drilling plans off the island of Crete, with US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) eyeing two potentially oil-prolific offshore blocks, arguing the acreage falls within its exclusive economic zone.
Norway Brings Key Oilfield to Peak Capacity. Norway’s national oil firm Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) said that its flagship Johan Castberg project, the largest FPSO in the country’s territorial waters with 220,000 b/d production capacity, is now producing at peak capacity, less than four months after its commissioning.
US Supreme Court Sides with California Refiners. The US Supreme Court sided with Californian refiners that had opposed the Golden State’s tight standards for vehicle emissions and EV mandates, bringing California’s Biden-era exception from national emission standards back into the limelight.
Shale Champions Turn to Lithium Mining. US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) acquired on lease some 125,000 net acres in northeast Texas and Arkansas to develop lithium resources via direct lithium extraction, following ExxonMobil’s 2023 entry into Arkansas’ Smackover brine formation.
Spain Blames Power Plants for Nationwide Blackout. Almost two months after Spain witnessed a nationwide power outage on April 28, the Spanish government blamed grid operator Redeia for failing to maintain an appropriate voltage amongst surging renewable generation in the country.
China Doubles Down on South Sudan Despite Civil War. South Sudan agreed to enhance cooperation with China’s national oil firm CNPC to restart oil production in several fields damaged during the country’s ongoing civil war, seeking to lift production from 70,000 b/d now closer to 200,000 b/d.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
More Top Reads From Oilprice.com
