Executives from oil and gas firms have revealed where they expect the Henry Hub natural gas price to be at various points in the future in the second quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey, which was released recently.
The survey asked participants what they expect Henry Hub natural gas prices to be in six months, one year, two years, and five years. Executives from 116 oil and gas firms answered this question and gave a mean response of $3.66 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) for the six month mark, $3.81 per MMBtu for the one year mark, $4.12 per MMBtu for the two year mark, and $4.50 per MMBtu for the five year mark, the survey showed.
Executives from 117 oil and gas firms answered this question in the first quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey and gave a mean response of $3.71 per MMBtu for the six month mark, $3.98 per MMBtu for the year mark, $4.30 per MMBtu for the two year mark, and $4.83 per MMBtu for the five year mark, that survey showed.
The second quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey also asked participants what they expect the Henry Hub price to be at the end of this year. Executives from 133 oil and gas firms answered this question and gave an average response of $3.66 per MMBtu, the survey highlighted. The low forecast was $1.75 per MMBtu, the high forecast was $5 per MMBtu, and the average Henry Hub natural gas daily spot price during the survey was $3.30 per MMBtu, the survey pointed out.
Executives from 127 oil and gas firms answered this question in the first quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey and gave an average response of $3.78 per MMBtu, that survey showed. The low forecast came in at $2 per MMBtu, the high forecast was $5.25 per MMBtu, and the average Henry Hub natural gas daily spot price during the survey was $4.10 per MMBtu, that survey highlighted.
In a statement sent to Rigzone last week by Enverus, the company’s subsidiary Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) revealed that it was maintaining its NYMEX Henry Hub gas price forecast.
“We forecast prices will average $3.60 per MMBtu this summer and $3.85 per MMBtu in the winter,” EIR said in the statement.
“However, aggressive storage injections place downside risk to our near-term gas price call,” EIR added.
In that statement, EIR Director Al Salazar said, “we find the recent Henry Hub move over $4 per MMBtu somewhat unnerving”.
“Weekly storage injections are ~2.0 billion cubic feet per day over and above what the weather alone would indicate,” Salazar added.
“At this pace, gas storage in place would easily exceed 4.0 trillion cubic feet by the end of October. Clearly something has to give,” Salazar continued.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas states on its website that it “conducts a quarterly survey of about 200 oil and gas firms located or headquartered in the Eleventh District – Texas, southern New Mexico and northern Louisiana – which operate regionally, nationally or internationally”. The information collected is a valuable component of economic analysis and serves as input for Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy deliberations, the Dallas Fed notes on its site.
EIR describes itself as a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power, and renewable industries. Enverus describes itself as “the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights, and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95 percent of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers”.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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