Executives from oil and gas firms have revealed where they expect the Henry Hub natural gas price to be at various points in the future in the fourth quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey, which was released recently.
The survey asked participants what they expect Henry Hub natural gas prices to be in six months, one year, two years, and five years. Executives from 110 oil and gas firms answered this question and gave a mean response of $3.99 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) for the six month mark, $4.30 per MMBtu for the year mark, $4.57 per MMBtu for the two year mark, and $5.00 per MMBtu for the five year mark, the survey showed.
Executives from 121 oil and gas firms answered this question in the third quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey and gave a mean response of $3.35 per MMBtu for the six month mark, $3.53 per MMBtu for the year mark, $3.94 per MMBtu for the two year mark, and $4.50 per MMBtu for the five year mark, that survey showed.
Executives from 116 oil and gas firms answered this question in the second quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey and gave a mean response of $3.66 per MMBtu for the six month mark, $3.81 per MMBtu for the year mark, $4.12 per MMBtu for the two year mark, and $4.50 per MMBtu for the five year mark, that survey showed.
In the first quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey, executives from 117 oil and gas firms answered this question and gave a mean response of $3.71 per MMBtu for the six month mark, $3.98 per MMBtu for the year mark, $4.30 per MMBtu for the two year mark, and $4.83 per MMBtu for the five year mark, that survey showed.
The latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey also asked participants what they expect the Henry Hub natural gas price to be at the end of 2026. Executives from 124 oil and gas firms answered this question and gave an average response of $4.19 per MMBtu, the survey highlighted. The low forecast was $1.75 per MMBtu, the high forecast was $6.50 per MMBtu, and the average daily spot price during the survey was $4.84 per MMBtu, the survey pointed out.
The fourth quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey was the first Dallas Fed Energy Survey which asked participants what they expect the Henry Hub natural gas price to be at the end of 2026. The previous Dallas Fed Energy Survey asked participants what they expect the Henry Hub natural gas price to be at the end of 2025.
Executives from 133 oil and gas firms answered this question in the third quarter survey and gave an average response of $3.30 per MMBtu, that survey highlighted. The low forecast was $2.20 per MMBtu, the high forecast was $4.75 per MMBtu, and the average daily spot price during that survey was $2.99 per MMBtu, the third quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey pointed out.
Other Natural Gas Price Projections
In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on December 9, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that the Henry Hub spot price will average $3.56 per MMBtu in 2025 and $4.01 per MMBtu in 2026.
A quarterly breakdown included in that STEO projected that the Henry Hub spot price will come in at $3.87 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter of this year, $4.35 per MMBtu in the first quarter of 2026, $3.32 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $3.91 per MMBtu in the third quarter, and $4.48 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter of 2026.
In a J.P. Morgan report sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on December 12, J.P. Morgan projected that the U.S. natural gas Henry Hub price will average $3.59 per MMBtu overall in 2025 and $3.74 per MMBtu overall in 2026.
That report showed that J.P. Morgan saw the commodity coming in at $3.45 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter of 2025, $3.85 per MMBtu in the first quarter of next year, $3.35 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $3.60 per MMBtu in the third quarter, and $4.15 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter.
In a report dated December 10, which was sent to Rigzone recently by the Standard Chartered team, Standard Chartered projected that the NYMEX basis Henry Hub U.S. natural gas nearby future price will average $3.550 per MMBtu overall in 2025 and $4.025 per MMBtu overall in 2026.
Macquarie projected, in a report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on December 5, that the U.S. natural gas price will average $3.66 per MMBtu overall in 2025 and $3.80 per MMBtu overall in 2026.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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