The European Commission has claimed the European Union is on course to curb greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 55 percent by 2030 relative to 1990 as targeted by the European Climate Law, though it said efforts need to go beyond existing policies.
The projection is based on an assessment of the 27 member-states’ latest National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs). The Commission noted Belgium, Estonia and Poland had yet to submit their final NECPs. Member stated had been given a deadline of June 2024 to file their final NECPs.
“Based on an analysis of Member States’ projections in the submitted plans, the Commission estimates that total net GHG emissions in 2030 will decrease by around 54 percent compared to 1990, showing that the EU is well on track to reach its 2030 target”, stated the assessment report, published Wednesday.
“This relies on full implementation of the Member States’ existing and additional policies and measures as well as of EU policies”, the report said.
For domestic transport, buildings, agriculture, small industry and waste, the EU is projected to be two percentage points short of meeting the 40 percent reduction goal by the end of the decade relative to 2005, as specified by the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR).
“12 Member States expect to reach their 2030 ESR targets with existing and additional policies and measures (up from 8 in the draft plans), while 6 more expect to reach their targets by using available domestic flexibilities”, the report said. “5 Member States expect to have a gap to their 2030 targets”.
Most member states have measures to decarbonize roads, rails, ports, airports and other transport infrastructure, in concert with EU policies such as CO2 standards for vehicles and the Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Regulation. However, some countries still offer support for fossil-fueled vehicles, in collision with emission reduction objectives. These support schemes should be phased out, the report said.
On renewable energy, most member states have declared national contributions that are in line with the Renewable Energy Directive’s target to raise the share of renewables in the overall regional energy mix to 42.5 percent by 2030. However, current national ambitions present a gap of 1.5 percentage points, according to the report.
“Contributions put forward by Member States signal a strong commitment to renewables deployment but indicate a 41 percent renewable energy share in gross final energy consumption by 2030”, the report said.
“At the same time, a more optimistic assessment based on Member State projections suggest that the EU could reach a figure of 42.6 percent, demonstrating the potential to go further”, it said, noting that between 2022 and 2024 EU nations installed about 205 gigawatts of renewable power capacity.
“This represents significant progress compared to the 33.1-33.7 percent renewable share projected in the original 2019 final NECPs and is also higher than the overall share resulting from the draft updated NECPs that were due to be submitted in June 2023”.
“As part of a European Grid Package in the last quarter of 2025, the Commission will work to further streamline and simplify EU legislation and reduce permitting times including with targeted updates to environmental legislation, which will be crucial for removing barriers to renewable projects, infrastructure development and energy storage”, the report said. “This will be particularly relevant for the buildings and industry sectors.
“The focus will be on increasing energy storage capacity to create a favorable framework for investments in renewables-based electrification”.
According to a study published May 13 by Beyond Fossil Fuels, E3G, Ember and the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, a conservative estimate indicated 1,700 GW of renewable energy and hybrid projects were waiting for grid connections across 16 European countries in 2024-25.
The projects on queue represented a capacity that exceeds the additional installation needed to reach national energy and decarbonization goals by 2030, according to the think tanks.
They blamed outdated planning and policies that are slowing the upgrade and build-out of electricity highways.
“The analysis of 32 electricity transmission system operators (TSOs) across 28 countries finds that many are still using outdated scenarios rooted in old government targets and market assumptions”, the think tanks said in a statement. “These scenarios do not reflect the exponential growth in renewables on the ground and act as a systemic handbrake on building a flexible grid capable of absorbing increasingly high shares of renewables”.
The European Network of TSOs for Electricity and the European Commission have not replied to Rigzone’s requests for comment on the TSO analysis.
To contact the author, email jov.onsat@rigzone.com
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