EU GHG Emissions Up 3.4 Percent YoY in 1Q

The European Union economy emitted about 900 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in the first quarter, up 3.4 percent from the same three-month period last year, according to official estimates.

The increase came as the 27-member bloc’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 1.2 percent year-on-year in the January-March 2025 quarter, the European Commission said in a statement.

The sectors with the biggest shares of emissions were households (25.5 percent), electricity and gas supply (19.3 percent) and manufacturing (18.6 percent).

The two sectors responsible for the highest year-over-year increases were electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, up 13.6 percent, and households, up 5.6 percent. 

Declines were recorded in transport and storage (-2.9 percent); agriculture, forestry and fishing (-1.4 percent); and manufacturing (-0.2 percent).

Twenty countries saw higher emissions while seven saw decreases. Six countries recorded year-on-year increases of over five percent: Bulgaria, Czechia, Cyprus, Poland, Hungary and Greece. The largest curbs were recorded in Malta (-6.2 percent), Finland (-4.4 percent) and Denmark (-4.3 percent).

“Out of the seven EU countries that registered decreases in greenhouse gas emissions, three also recorded a decline in their GDP (Estonia, Latvia and Luxembourg)”, the Commission said. “The other four EU countries (Denmark, Finland, Malta and Sweden) were estimated to have decreased emissions while growing their GDP”.

In power generation, the Commission earlier reported a 17 percent year-on-year increase to 33 terawatt hours (tWh) in fossil fuel-sourced electricity in the EU in 1Q due to a moderate increase in demand and a fall in wind and hydro generation that offset a record 1Q for solar.

“In total, coal-fired generation rose by 15 percent (+11 TWh), whereas less CO2-intensive gas generation increased even stronger by 23 percent (+21 TWh)”, the Commission said in its quarterly electricity market report.

The EU generated 681 tWh of electricity in 1Q, up nine tWh from the same period last year.

The share of renewables dropped to 41 percent or 282 tWh from 46 percent in 1Q 2024, while the share of fossil fuels climbed to 33 percent or 227 tWh from 28 percent in 1Q 2024. Nuclear accounted for 33 percent of 1Q 2025 generation.

Onshore wind remained the biggest renewable power source in the EU, despite a 17 percent or 22 tWh year-on-year decrease to 107 tWh. Onshore wind accounted for 38 percent of renewables generation in the EU in 1Q 2025.

Offshore wind also decreased 22 percent or four tWh to 15 tWh. It accounted for five percent of the total EU renewables generation.

Hydro generation declined 15 percent or 16 tWh to 91 tWh, “albeit from high levels in Q1 2024”, the report said. Hydro had a 32 percent share of the total renewables generation.

The declines offset a new record-high Q1 for solar. Solar generation grew 30 percent or 10 tWh to 45 tWh.

However, the Commission said in a statement, “A closer look at the figures shows that, after atypically weak generation in January and February, renewable output started to pick up again in March, indicating a positive trajectory for the upcoming months”.

EU electricity consumption slightly increased, by one percent or eight tWh, to 657 tWh in 1Q 2025. “On the national level, 18 member states saw an increase in electricity consumption, while the remaining countries were stagnant or experienced a decline”, the report said.

“Despite this modest increase, demand levels for Q1 2025 were still below the pre-crisis average (-6 percent, compared to the 2015-19 range)”.

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