In its 2026 energy outlook report, which was published recently, Enverus warned that this year is “likely to be characterized by contrasting market dynamics”.
“In the first half, notwithstanding upside risk from increasing geopolitical tensions, oil prices are expected to decline further as global inventories swell to levels not observed since the Covid-19 era and the U.S. shale price war,” Enverus said in the report.
“Global demand in the second half is projected to outpace supply, initiating stock draws and supporting a price recovery,” it added.
“Against this backdrop, Brent crude is forecast to average $55 per barrel for 2026, reflecting the combined effects of early-year weakness and late-year stabilization,” the report went on to state.
In a statement posted on Enverus’ website in November 2025, Al Salazar, Senior Vice President at Enverus subisidiary Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), noted that “the current oil market forecast indicates significant oversupply to come as roughly 2.9 billion barrels of crude and petroleum products are stored in OECD tanks today, up from the typical total of 2.7-2.8 billion”.
“At EIR, our oil price outlook foresees a potential drop in early 2026 to levels reminiscent of the pandemic in 2020 or the OPEC-U.S. shale war back in 2015,” Salazar warned in that statement.
“This sobering forecast has traders and energy experts reevaluating their oil trading strategies,” he added.
“The typical seasonal demand dip from Q4 to Q1, reducing global oil consumption by about 1-2 million barrels per day, coincides with a steady supply. This mismatch could exacerbate today’s surplus, possibly pushing Brent crude into the $40-$50 per barrel range in the first half of the coming year,” Salazar highlighted.
In a statement sent to Rigzone by the Enverus team announcing the release of Enverus’ 2026 energy outlook report, Dane Gregoris, managing director at EIR, said, “our work shows oil prices will reset lower in 2026 without signaling long-term scarcity”.
“Upstream operators will continue to push for efficiency gains while capital stays highly selective,” he added.
Henry Hub
In its report, Enverus projected that Henry Hub prices will average $3.80 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) “through the winter months” and $3.60 per MMBtu “during the summer, before gradually increasing to $4.00-$4.50 per MMBtu by the end of the decade”.
Enverus noted in its report that this outlook “reflects several structural factors expected to limit the sustainability of recent price strength”.
“Although prices at the trading hub surged by about $1.00 per MMBtu in late October, driven by colder weather forecasts and record LNG export volumes, multiple dynamics point to ongoing market softness,” Enverus added.
“L48 production remains highly elastic, with output growth exceeding expectations in response to price signals. At the same time, gas-fired power generation is losing market share to coal at current elevated price levels, indicating demand-side weakness,” it continued.
“Additionally, weekly storage withdrawals have been lighter than weather patterns would suggest, and the current storage surplus of roughly 150 billion cubic feet versus the five-year average is unlikely to be materially reduced given robust supply and muted demand,” Enverus went on to state.
In the statement sent to Rigzone, Enverus describes itself as “the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to maximize value from generative AI, offering anytime, anywhere access to analytics and insights”.
“These include benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from more than 95 percent of U.S. energy producers and more than 40,000 suppliers,” Enverus adds.
Enverus outlined in the statement that its report pulled from a variety of products, including Enverus PRISM, Enverus FOUNDATIONS – Carbon Innovation, Short‑Term Grid Analytics & Forecasting Solutions, Oil & Gas Production Forecast Solutions (Forecast Analytics), Enverus CORE, and Enverus AI.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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