Grok 4 crunched the numbers and predicted a winner of the World Series. To the disappointment of San Francisco Giants fans, it thinks the Los Angeles Dodgers are in pole position.
Sports bettors rely on a variety of tools for their wagers. Betting sites like FanDuel and BetMGM have their own odds, as do prediction markets like Polymarket. Grok 4, the newest iteration of xAI’s large language model, may be their next resource.
During the launch of Grok 4 — just a day after its previous iteration, Grok 3, went on several antisemitic rants — Elon Musk and his xAI panel prompted the chatbot to calculate odds on the World Series.
After an over four-minute wait, the model predicted both a likely winner and a high-value edge case.
xAI
During the presentation, an xAI employee called Polymarket the “C-curve of truth” that “aligns with what reality is most of the time.” They wanted Grok 4 to do the same.
“We can try to take these markets and see if we can predict the future as well,” he said.
According to the demo, Grok 4 first gathered the current standing of each team and their market odds. It cited ESPN, Bleacher Nation, FOX, and BetMGM.
Grok 4 then calculated its own odds based on FanGraph data. After comparing the internally calculated odds against the betting sites, it identified an Alpha and Edge.
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The Alpha — an excess return over the market — recognized the Dodgers as overvalued in Grok 4’s calculations. The Edge — a bet with positive expected value — was given to the Mariners and Astros.
xAI
Ultimately, Grok 4 found the Dodgers most likely to win, with a 21.6% chance. For a potentially higher return, Grok 4 recommended betting on the underpriced Mariners.
Grok 4’s predictions are not far off from the current odds on Polymarket, the popular betting site. The Dodgers also dominate there, with an even greater 28% odds. The Mariners only have 2% odds on Polymarket.
To calculate these odds, Grok 4 needs to use its “Heavy” reasoning capabilities, which cost the user $300/month for early access. This means a response may take longer than traditional chatbot responses. During the demo, it took 4.5 minutes for Grok 4 to calculate the World Series odds.
“That’s a lot of thinking,” Musk said.
How confident is Grok 4 in its guess? It’s just a prediction, as the chatbot’s own disclaimer demonstrates: “Grok is not a financial advisor; please consult one.”
