The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is forecasting that total U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, will drop from 2026 to 2027 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released earlier this month.
According to its February STEO, the EIA sees U.S. oil output averaging 13.60 million barrels per day this year and 13.32 million barrels per day next year. U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, came in at 13.60 million barrels per day in 2025, the STEO highlighted.
In its previous STEO, which was released in January and was the first STEO to offer production predictions for 2027, the EIA saw total U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, dropping from 13.61 million barrels per day in 2025 to 13.59 million barrels per day in 2026 and 13.25 million barrels per day in 2027.
The EIA is projecting in its latest STEO that Lower 48 States, excluding the Gulf of America, will produce 11.15 million barrels per day of the 2026 total, and that the Federal Gulf of America and Alaska will produce 1.98 million barrels per day and 0.47 million barrels per day, respectively, of this year’s total figure.
This STEO forecasts that, in 2027, Lower 48 States, excluding the Gulf of America, will produce 10.96 million barrels per day, the Federal Gulf of America will produce 1.87 million barrels per day, and Alaska will produce 0.50 million barrels per day.
In 2025, Lower 48 States, excluding the Gulf of America, produced 11.28 million barrels per day, the Federal Gulf of America produced 1.90 million barrels per day, and Alaska produced 0.42 million barrels per day, the EIA’s February STEO showed.
A data page on the EIA website displaying monthly U.S. field production of crude oil – which was last updated on February 6, 2026, and includes data from January 1920 to November 2025 – showed that monthly U.S. field production of crude oil averaged 13.864 million barrels per day in October last year.
This figure is the highest in the data set, with the second highest figure coming in September 2025, at 13.828 million barrels per day, and the third highest figure coming in August 2025, at 13.810 million barrels per day.
Monthly U.S. field production of crude oil has averaged 13 million barrels per day or more on 26 occasions, according to the data page. Eleven of these were seen in 2025, another 11 came in 2024, and four came in 2023, the data page highlighted.
A data page on the EIA site showing annual U.S. field production of crude oil – which was also last updated on February 6, 2026, and which includes data from 1859 to 2024 – showed that annual U.S. field production of crude oil averaged 13.235 million barrels per day in 2024. Prior to this, annual U.S. field production of crude oil had never averaged 13 million barrels per day or more, the data revealed. The closest it came to an annual average of 13 million barrels per day was in 2023, at 12.943 million barrels per day, the data showed.
In its STEO, the EIA describes itself as the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. The EIA states in its STEO that, “by law”, its “data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. Government” and added that “the views in this report do not represent those of DOE or any other federal agencies”.
The EIA notes on its website that it collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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