In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on September 9, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price will drop in both 2025 and 2026.
According to this STEO, the EIA expects the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price to average $3.65 per gallon in 2025 and $3.46 per gallon in 2026. The U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price averaged $3.76 per gallon in 2024, the STEO showed.
A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO revealed that the EIA expects the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price to come in at $3.75 per gallon in the third quarter, $3.67 per gallon in the fourth quarter, $3.47 per gallon in the first quarter of 2026, $3.35 per gallon in the second quarter, $3.46 per gallon in the third quarter, and $3.57 per gallon in the fourth quarter of next year.
In its previous STEO, which was released in August, the EIA forecast that the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price would average $3.66 per gallon in 2025 and $3.47 per gallon in 2026.
In that STEO, the EIA projected that the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price would average $3.78 per gallon in the third quarter, $3.66 per gallon in the fourth quarter, $3.49 per gallon in the first quarter of 2026, $3.36 per gallon in the second quarter, $3.47 per gallon in the third quarter, and $3.57 per gallon in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Both STEOs showed that the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price averaged $3.63 per gallon in the first quarter of 2025 and $3.55 per gallon in the second quarter.
The EIA’s latest diesel fuel update, which was released on September 16, showed a mixed bag for U.S. on-highway diesel fuel prices.
According to that update, the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price averaged $3.734 per gallon on September 1, then increased to $3.766 per gallon on September 8, before dropping to $3.739 per gallon on September 15.
Although the September 15 price was down $0.027 from the week ago price, it was up $0.213 from the year ago price, the update outlined.
Of the five Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) regions highlighted in the EIA’s latest fuel update, the West Coast was shown to have the highest U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price as of September 15, at $4.523 per gallon. The Gulf Coast was shown in the update to have the lowest U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price as of September 15, at $3.389 per gallon.
A glossary section of the EIA site notes that the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia are divided into five districts, with PADD 1 further split into three subdistricts. PADDs 6 and 7 encompass U.S. territories, the site adds.
According to the AAA Fuel Prices website, the average diesel price in the U.S. is $3.688 per gallon, as of September 22. Yesterday’s average was $3.695 per gallon, the week ago average was $3.685 per gallon, the month ago average was $3.689 per gallon, and the year ago average was $3.586 per gallon, the site showed.
The highest recorded average price for diesel in the U.S. was seen on June 19, 2022, at $5.815 per gallon, the AAA Fuel Prices website pointed out.
According to the EIA’s latest diesel fuel update, which pegged the diesel retail price at $3.78 per gallon in July, 44 percent of that total went towards crude oil costs, 22 percent went towards refining costs, 19 percent went towards distribution and marketing costs, and 16 percent went towards taxes.
An EIA diesel fuel update released in September last year, which pinned the diesel price at $3.81 per gallon in July 2024, showed that 51 percent of that total went towards crude oil costs, 21 percent went towards distribution and marketing costs, 16 percent went towards taxes, and 13 percent went towards refining costs.
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