In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on February 10, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that the average Brent spot price will drop in 2026 and 2027.
According to this STEO, the EIA sees the Brent spot price coming in at $57.69 per barrel in 2026 and $53.00 per barrel in 2027. The Brent spot price averaged $69.04 per barrel in 2025, the STEO showed.
A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO showed that the organization expects the Brent spot price to come in at $64.44 per barrel in the first quarter of this year, $57.32 per barrel in the second quarter, $55.35 per barrel in the third quarter, $54.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $53.00 per barrel across the first, second, third, and fourth quarters of next year.
In the STEO, the EIA highlighted that the Brent crude oil spot price averaged $67 per barrel in January, which it pointed out was $4 per barrel higher than the average in December. The EIA noted that daily Brent crude oil prices increased from an average of $62 per barrel on January 2 to $72 per barrel on January 30.
“Crude oil prices rose in response to disruptions to crude oil production in the United States and Kazakhstan,” the EIA highlighted in the STEO.
“Despite the near-term increase in prices and short-term disruptions to oil supply, we forecast that strong growth in global oil production will result in high global oil inventory builds over the forecast, causing crude oil prices to fall,” it added.
“We forecast that Brent spot prices will average $58 per barrel in 2026 and $53 per barrel in 2027, down from an average of $69 per barrel in 2025,” it continued.
In its STEO, the EIA said markets also responded to questions over recent U.S. policy action toward Iran, “with oil prices recently trading higher and with greater volatility”.
“Crude oil production in Iran has remained stable so far. We assume it will remain stable over our forecast but acknowledge that actions targeting oil infrastructure or a conflict that affects flows through Strait of Hormuz could obviously reduce Middle East oil production and exports,” the EIA stated.
The EIA went on to note in its February STEO that, although it expects prices to fall in 2026 and remain under $60 per barrel in 2027, it assesses that both OPEC+ policy and China’s continued strategic inventory builds “will limit declines”.
“A large portion of oil inventory builds last year were in strategic stockpiles in China, which limited downward price pressures because these builds acted as a source of demand,” the EIA said.
“We assume that China will continue building strategic stockpiles at nearly the same rate of about 1.0 million barrels per day in 2026, before reducing strategic builds in 2027,” it added.
“On February 1, OPEC+ reaffirmed plans to keep production flat in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26). Despite no plans to announce 2027 targets until 4Q26, we do not expect OPEC+ will increase production next year given our expectation of large inventory builds over the forecast period,” the EIA continued.
The EIA also stated in its STEO that the evolving situation in Venezuela remains a key uncertainty in its forecast.
In a geopolitical update report sent to Rigzone by the Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) team on Tuesday, SEB Chief EM Strategist Erik Meyersson highlighted that oil markets “remain tense”.
“Brent oil prices have risen from $60 per barrel at the start of the year to $69.3 per barrel,” he added in the report.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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