In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on May 6, the EIA raised its U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price forecast for 2025 and 2026.
According to that STEO, the EIA expects the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price to average $3.49 per gallon in 2025 and $3.54 per gallon in 2026. In its previous STEO, which was released in April, the EIA projected that the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price would come in at $3.44 per gallon in 2025 and $3.53 per gallon in 2026.
Both STEOs highlighted that the 2024 U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price averaged $3.76 per gallon.
In its latest STEO, the EIA forecast that the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price will come in at $3.50 per gallon in the second quarter of this year, $3.40 per gallon in the third quarter, $3.44 per gallon in the fourth quarter, $3.52 per gallon across the first and second quarter of next year, $3.55 per gallon in the third quarter, and $3.58 per gallon in the fourth quarter.
In its April STEO, the EIA projected that the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price would average $3.41 per gallon in the second quarter of this year, $3.30 per gallon in the third quarter, $3.41 per gallon in the fourth quarter, $3,51 per gallon in the first quarter of 2026, $3.49 per gallon in the second quarter, $3.53 per gallon in the third quarter, and $3.57 per gallon in the fourth quarter of next year.
Both STEOs pointed out that the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price averaged $3.63 per gallon in the first quarter of 2025.
Current Price
In its latest diesel fuel update, which was released on May 13, the EIA showed that the average U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price was $3.514 per gallon on April 28, $3.497 per gallon on May 5, and $3.476 per gallon on May 12. The May 12 price was $0.372 down from the year ago price, the EIA’s latest diesel fuel update outlined.
Of the five Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) regions highlighted in the EIA’s latest fuel update, the West Coast was shown to have the highest U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price as of May 12, at $4.211 per gallon. The Gulf Coast was shown to have the lowest U.S. on-highway diesel price as of May 12, at $3.143 per gallon.
A glossary section of the EIA site notes that the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia are divided into five districts, with PADD 1 further split into three subdistricts. PADDs 6 and 7 encompass U.S. territories, the site adds.
According to the AAA Fuel Prices website, the average U.S. diesel price is $3.548 per gallon, as of May 15. Yesterday’s average was $3.542 per gallon, the week ago average was $3.537 per gallon, the month ago average was $3.585 per gallon, and the year ago average was $3.935 per gallon, the site highlighted.
The highest recorded average price for diesel in the U.S. was seen on June 19, 2022, at $5.815 per gallon, the AAA Fuel Prices site outlined.
What Do You Pay For?
The EIA’s latest diesel fuel update, which pegged the diesel price at $3.59 per gallon in March 2025, showed that 46 percent of that total went towards crude oil costs, 23 percent went towards distribution and marketing costs, 17 percent went towards taxes, and 15 percent went towards refining costs.
According to an EIA diesel fuel update released back in May 2024, which pinned the diesel price at $4.02 per gallon in March last year, 47 percent of that total went towards crude oil costs, 19 percent went towards refining costs, 19 percent went towards distribution and marketing costs, and 15 percent went towards taxes.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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