The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised its crude oil production outlook slightly higher in the October Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) after new data showed record output in July 2025.
U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.6 million bpd in July, the highest monthly level on record and above earlier estimates. The EIA now forecasts production will average 13.5 million bpd in both 2025 and 2026, modestly higher than its September forecast, as U.S. producers sustain near-record activity levels despite softening prices.
Global oil prices are projected to continue trending lower as inventories build through 2026. The agency expects Brent crude to average $69/bbl in 2025 and $52/bbl in 2026, citing growing global supply—particularly from non-OPEC+ countries—and moderate demand growth.
EIA noted that OPEC+ output is likely to remain below announced targets, limiting further inventory expansion. However, uncertainty persists due to potential supply disruptions, including Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, China’s crude stockpiling behavior, and the recent fire at Chevron’s El Segundo refinery in California.
Natural gas output also remains strong, with Henry Hub spot prices forecast to rise to $4.10/MMBtu in January 2026 before easing as production and storage levels increase. LNG export capacity is projected to expand by 5 Bcf/d over the next two years, driven by new trains at Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi Stage 3, bringing total U.S. LNG exports to 15 Bcf/d in 2025 and 16 Bcf/d in 2026.
