In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on December 9, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) again raised its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price forecast for both 2025 and 2026.
According to this STEO, the EIA now expects the WTI spot price to average $65.32 per barrel in 2025 and $51.42 per barrel in 2026. The EIA’s December STEO marks the latest in a line of STEOs with average WTI spot price forecast increases for both 2025 and 2026.
In its previous November STEO, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price would average $65.15 per barrel in 2025 and $51.26 per barrel in 2026. The EIA’s October STEO projected that the WTI spot price would average $65.00 per barrel this year and $48.50 per barrel next year, and its September STEO forecast that the WTI spot price would average $64.16 per barrel in 2025 and $47.77 per barrel in 2026.
Although the September STEO included an increase in the average WTI spot price forecast for 2025, compared to the previous August STEO, the average WTI spot price forecast for 2026 was unchanged from the previous STEO.
A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s December STEO projected that the WTI spot price will average $59.31 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025, $50.93 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $50.68 per barrel in the second quarter, and $52.00 per barrel across the third and fourth quarters of next year.
The WTI spot price averaged $71.85 per barrel in the first quarter, $64.63 per barrel in the second quarter, and $65.78 per barrel in the third quarter, the December STEO showed. It highlighted that the WTI spot price averaged $76.60 per barrel overall in 2024.
In a J.P. Morgan report sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on December 12, J.P. Morgan projected that the WTI crude price will average $65 per barrel overall in 2025 and $54 per barrel overall in 2026.
J.P. Morgan forecasted in this report that the commodity will come in at $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $56 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $55 per barrel in the second quarter, $52 per barrel in the third quarter, and $51 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026.
In a report dated December 10, which was sent to Rigzone recently by the Standard Chartered team, Standard Chartered projected that the NYMEX WTI basis nearby future crude oil price will average $65.40 per barrel in 2025 and $59.90 per barrel in 2026.
In this report, Standard Chartered forecasted that the commodity will come in at $61.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $58.50 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $59.50 per barrel in the second quarter, $60.50 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026, and $61.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
Macquarie projected, in a report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on December 5, that the WTI price will average $64.89 per barrel overall in 2025 and $57.25 per barrel overall in 2026.
According to that report, Macquarie expects the WTI price to average $59.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $53.50 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $55.50 per barrel in the second quarter, $56.50 per barrel in the third quarter, and $63.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
In a BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on December 5, BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, projected that the front month WTI crude price will average $65.50 per barrel in 2025 and $64.00 per barrel in 2026.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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