Colombia’s state-controlled oil giant Ecopetrol may increase spending and boost output if elevated oil prices persist amid the escalating Middle East conflict, the company’s chief executive said Thursday.
Benchmark Brent crude has surged to its highest level in more than a year following U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran and disruptions to exports from the Persian Gulf. Brent climbed to more than $85 per barrel this week, up from roughly $70 before the conflict erupted on February 28.
Ecopetrol CEO Ricardo Roa told analysts during the company’s quarterly earnings call that the firm is closely watching market developments and could adjust capital spending to take advantage of stronger prices.
“We will of course be reviewing the situation,” Roa said. “If we see the potential for higher investments we will adjust our capex to be on the higher range of our guidance, with the capability of increasing production on a short term basis.”
Ecopetrol has budgeted between $5.4 billion and $6.7 billion in capital expenditures this year. About 57% of that spending is allocated to exploration and production, while power subsidiary ISA accounts for roughly 25%. Downstream operations represent 7%, midstream activities 6%, and energy transition initiatives about 5%.
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Ecopetrol previously projected slightly lower production this year. The company expects average output of 730,000 to 740,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2026, compared with 751,000 barrels per day in H1 last year. As of November 2025, their 2026 production plans were based on just $60 Brent.
Company executives cautioned that the ultimate impact of the Middle East conflict remains uncertain.
Chief Financial Officer Camilo Barco said it was too early to determine how the geopolitical crisis might affect Ecopetrol’s finances, noting that higher crude prices could be partially offset by rising shipping and transportation costs.
“It depends on how long the conflict will last and the extent to which it affects exporters in that region,” Barco said.
Stronger crude prices could increase demand for Colombian barrels and refined products, Barco added, but freight rates have already surged sharply amid the turmoil. Shipping costs are currently running roughly 150% to 160% higher, potentially eroding some of the gains from higher oil prices.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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