The Department of Energy warns that blackouts could increase by 100% in 2030 if the U.S. continues to shutter reliable power sources and fails to add additional firm capacity.
WASHINGTON— The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) today released its Report on Evaluating U.S. Grid Reliability and Security. The report fulfills Section 3(b) of President Trump’s Executive Order, Strengthening The Reliability And Security Of The United States Electric Grid, by delivering a uniform methodology to identify at-risk regions and guide Federal reliability interventions.
The analysis reveals that existing generation retirements and delays in adding new firm capacity, driven by the radical green agenda of past administrations, will lead to a surge in power outages and a growing mismatch between electricity demand and supply, particularly from artificial intelligence (AI)-driven data center growth, threatening America’s energy security.
“This report affirms what we already know: The United States cannot afford to continue down the unstable and dangerous path of energy subtraction previous leaders pursued, forcing the closure of baseload power sources like coal and natural gas,” Secretary Wright said. “In the coming years, America’s reindustrialization and the AI race will require a significantly larger supply of around-the-clock, reliable, and uninterrupted power. President Trump’s administration is committed to advancing a strategy of energy addition, and supporting all forms of energy that are affordable, reliable, and secure. If we are going to keep the lights on, win the AI race, and keep electricity prices from skyrocketing, the United States must unleash American energy.”
Highlights of the Report:
The status quo is unsustainable. DOE’s analysis shows that, if current retirement schedules and incremental additions remain unchanged, most regions will face unacceptable reliability risks within five years and the Nation’s electrical power grid will be unable to meet expected demand for AI, data centers, manufacturing and industrialization while keeping the cost of living low for all Americans. Staying on the present course would undermine U.S. economic growth, national security, and leadership in emerging technologies.Grid growth must match the pace of AI innovation. Electricity demand from AI-driven data centers and advanced manufacturing is rising at a record pace. The magnitude and speed of projected load growth cannot be met with existing approaches to load addition and grid management. Radical change is needed to unleash the transformative potential of innovation.With projected load growth, retirements increase the risk of power outages by 100% in 2030. Allowing 104 GW of firm generation to retire by 2030—without timely replacement—could lead to significant outages when weather conditions do not accommodate wind and solar generation. Modeling shows annual outage hours could increase from single digits today to more than 800 hours per year. Such a surge would leave millions of households and businesses vulnerable. We must renew a focus on firm generation and continue to reverse radical green ideology in order to address this risk.Planned supply falls short, reliability at risk. The 104 GW of plant retirements are replaced by 209 GW of new generation by 2030; however, only 22 GW comes from firm baseload generation sources. Even assuming no retirements, the model found outage risk in several regions rises more than 30-fold, proving the queue alone cannot close the dependable-capacity deficit.Old tools won’t solve new problems. Traditional peak-hour tests to evaluate resource adequacy do not sufficiently account for growing dependence on neighboring grids. At a minimum, modern methods of evaluating resource adequacy need to incorporate frequency, magnitude, and duration of power outages, move beyond exclusively analyzing peak load time periods, and develop integrated models to enable proper analysis of increasing reliance on neighboring grids.
DOE’s report identifies regions most vulnerable to outages under various weather and retirement scenarios and offers capacity targets needed to restore acceptable reliability. The methodology also informs the potential use of DOE’s emergency authority under Section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act.
Click here for a fact sheet on the report.
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