OPEC+ is expected to stick with a planned output pause when it meets this weekend amid growing signs of global oil oversupply, three delegates said.
Key members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia will hold a monthly video conference on Jan. 4, and review a decision — first made in November — to halt further supply hikes during the first quarter after rapidly reviving production earlier this year.
The coalition confirmed the policy during a gathering at the start of this month, and will probably do so again this time, according to the delegates, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations.
Crude futures have lost 17% this year and are headed for their biggest annual drop since the 2020 pandemic, as supplies swelled from both OPEC+ and its competitors while world demand growth slowed. Forecasters like the International Energy Agency are predicting a record glut next year, and even OPEC’s secretariat — usually more bullish than others — projects a modest surplus.
The latest online gathering of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners takes place against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical uncertainty in global oil markets.
OPEC member Venezuela has been forced to start shutting wells in the face of a blockade by US President Donald Trump’s administration, which has seized and chased tankers carrying the nation’s crude. Russian oil infrastructure and tankers have been targeted by Ukraine in attacks that have also taken a toll on Kazakhstan, another alliance member.
Relations between group leader Saudi Arabia and its neighbor, the United Arab Emirates, have also come under rare public strain amid the war in Yemen, with Riyadh on Tuesday urging the UAE to end support for armed groups operating there.
The Saudis and their allies stunned oil traders in April by accelerating the revival of supplies halted since 2023, despite signs that world markets were already comfortably supplied.
They agreed to speedily restore an initial 2.2 million barrel-a-day tranche, and then more slowly began to revive another layer, before deciding last month to pause the process. Of the two layers, about 1.2 million barrels-a-day have yet to restart, as some countries struggle to increase as much as pledged.
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