Support Cluster
A critical support zone sits immediately below current levels, defined by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $58.94 and the completion of a falling ABCD pattern at $58.71. At point D, the two minor declining legs from the recent swing high (A) match exactly in price change, satisfying pattern symmetry. While a bearish continuation below this zone remains possible, odds favor an eventual bullish reversal here given the prior sharp advance and single-leg structure off the October low.
Initial Rally Context
The rally began with a dramatic bullish reversal on October 22 from a small declining channel. Follow-through was impressive: price exploded higher and confirmed strength via clean breaks above both the 10-day and 20-day moving averages. Resistance materialized near the declining 50-day average, marking the first meaningful pullback since the advance began—classic behavior after a single impulsive leg.
Bullish Reversal Trigger
Key upside validation arrives on a rally above the interim swing high (C) at $60.78. That level aligns with the now-falling 50-day average near $61.96 and a prior support shelf at $61.84, creating a tight resistance band from $60.78 to $61.96. A decisive push through this zone targets the $63.03 prior high, with sustained momentum then challenging the intermediate downtrend line.
Higher Targets in Play
Breakout above the downtrend line opens the path to the 78.6% retracement at $64.55 and the falling 200-day MA near $65.28. These levels represent realistic objectives for a second-leg advance, mirroring the enthusiasm seen in the initial rally off the October bottom.
Outlook
Despite unfolding within a broader declining trend—suggesting potential muted follow-through—the current pullback offers attractive risk/reward once the $58.71–$58.94 zone holds. Watch for reversal signals at that confluence; confirmation above $60.78 shifts the near-term bias firmly bullish and targets $63–$65 in the weeks ahead.
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