New Delhi: India’s crude oil imports are slipping this year amid stagnant demand at home and abroad, a sign that the world’s third-largest consumer and importer may no longer be the reliable demand growth driver global markets count on.
Oil imports fell 0.6% YoY during April-July and product imports 1.5%. The slide deepened in July with crude imports declining 4.3% and products’ falling 12.7%. Exports offered little cushion with product shipments down 0.2% in July and up 0.02% over four months. In volume terms, product exports equal about a fifth of India’s combined crude and product imports. Weak imports mirror flagging demand. Domestic fuel use contracted 4.2% in July and 0.5% in April-July, dragged by lower consumption of fuel oil, naphtha and pet coke, though petrol, diesel and LPG posted growth.
Bitumen and lubricant demand turned positive in July after shrinking in the previous quarter.
From April to July, petrol demand rose 6.8%, LPG 7.5%, and diesel-India’s top fuel-only 2.6%. Jet fuel growth slowed to 2.3% in the four-month period while slipping 2.3% in July.
Brent averaged $67 a barrel in April-July, a sharp decline from $83 a year earlier. Lower prices and volumes reduced India’s crude import bill 17.5% to $40.4 billion in April-July. Product imports cost $7.6 billion, a 4% decline, while export earnings slid 16% to $12.3 billion.
India’s slowdown adds to global oil market worries amid weak Chinese demand and higher supplies. The US EIA sees Brent averaging $58 in Q4 2025 and $50 in early 2026. For now, uncertainties from US President Donald Trump’s tariffs and proposed penalty on India for Russian oil have lent some support to prices, but with OPEC output rising, the floor could give way.
