Coal power generation fell in China and India for the first time since the 1970s last year, in a “historic” moment that could bring a decline in global emissions, according to analysis.
The simultaneous fall in coal-powered electricity in the world’s biggest coal-consuming countries had not happened since 1973, according to analysts at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, and was driven by a record roll-out of clean energy projects.
The research, commissioned by the climate news website Carbon Brief, found that electricity generated by coal plants fell by 1.6% in China and by 3% in India last year, after the boom in clean energy across both countries was more than enough to meet their rising demand for energy.
“The drop in coal power and record increase in clean energy in China and India marks a historic moment,” according to the report, which could be “a sign of things to come”.
Together, the countries drove more than 90% of the increase in global carbon emissions between 2015 and 2024, meaning a permanent reduction in coal use could bring a peak in the world’s coal consumption and global emissions.
China added more than 300GW of solar power and 100GW of wind power last year – together, more than five times the UK’s total existing power generation capacity – which are both “clear new records for China and, therefore, for any country ever”, the report said.
India added 35GW of solar, 6GW of wind and 3.5GW of hydropower last year, according to the analysis. The faster clean-energy growth made up 44% of the reduction in India’s coal and gas, compared with the previous five years, marking the first time that clean-energy growth has played a significant role in driving down India’s coal-fired power generation.
However, about 36% of India’s fossil fuel reduction was driven by milder weather, while 20% was due to slower underlying demand growth, meaning a rise in severe summer temperatures could increase demand for air-conditioning and reverse the fall in energy demand.
In recent years an expected peak in global coal power was undermined by Russia’s war on Ukraine, which caused global gas prices to spike and pushed many developing countries to burn cheaper coal instead.
The International Energy Agency said just over a year ago that the rebound, after a slump during the global Covid pandemic, could mean that coal power remained at near-record levels until 2027.
