China’s LNG imports are set to rebound this year, rising by between 3% and 10% from 2025, driven by lower prices that are expected with the new supply wave, analysts have told Reuters.
Purchases from China, the world’s top LNG importer, are set to total between 70.5 million and 75.5 million metric tons this year, which would be a 3-10% increase compared to 2025, analysts at several energy intelligence firms told Reuters.
Last year saw a rare 10% drop in China’s imports. LNG demand softened considerably in 2025 as Chinese natural gas production continued to expand in line with plans to boost reliance on domestic energy commodity supply.
Earlier in 2025, domestic gas production hit an all-time high, bringing LNG imports to the lowest in six years, down by 19% on the year over the first seven months of 2025. A mild 2024/2025 winter, weaker industrial demand, and higher pipeline imports also weighed on LNG import demand in China last year.
This year, imports are set for a rebound, but persistent weakness in some pockets of the economy are unlikely to boost Chinese LNG demand to the levels seen in 2024, according to the analysts.
In recent months, China’s LNG imports have been rising, suggesting that demand would not be as weak as it was in early 2025.
Expected lower prices, due to the LNG supply wave, could encourage additional buying from the top importer, which looks for LNG supplies at bargain prices.
The supply growth, mostly from the top two exporters, the United States and Qatar, is set to depress Asian spot LNG prices and Europe’s benchmark gas prices at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF).
However, China would first look to boost domestic and pipeline gas supply before rushing to buy more LNG cargoes.
“Even if prices fall in 2026, LNG still can’t compete with domestic or imported pipeline gas, which has a cost advantage, so it remains a supplemental fuel,” Rystad Energy’s analyst Xiong Wei told Reuters.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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