China And Trump’s Abraham Accords Remake Middle Eastern Energy

U.S. President Donald Trump’s teasing about the possibility of more countries joining the Abraham Accords, as he did in June, may be one of the most important developments (so far) from the U.S.-Israeli-Iranian war. While Cassandras prophesied the conflict would destabilize the Middle East, it may have instead encouraged more cooperation between Israel and Mulsim nations, the underlying principle of the accords. If that trend continues, it could lead to more efficient energy industry supply chains and, overall, a more stable political environment with increased energy availability worldwide. There may also be a welcome change in the global balance of power, if China and Russia recognize that the United States is serious about continuing the principle of the Abraham Accords.

Back in October 2023, Iran supported the Hamas attack on Israel which, at least in part, were seen as an attempt to prevent Saudi Arabia from normalizing relations with Israel. This came after the Abraham Accords in 2020, seen as the first Trump administration’s most significant foreign policy accomplishment. This international agreement sought to normalize relations between Israel and various Muslim-majority states. Iran’s disruption of this process was both ideological and strategic, an escalation of its “ring of fire” strategy, designed to surround and attack Israel through numerous proxies.

Whether one believes a broken clock tells time twice a day, or the result was due to great strategic insight, the second Trump administration seems to have succeeded in encouraging both Israel and Iran to honor the ceasefire that started in June. America’s position, both geopolitically and in the energy sector, has been strengthened following the strikes on Iran, to wit Brent oil prices hovering at a healthy $67 a barrel at the time of this writing. While doubts about the success of attacks against Iran’s nuclear capabilities persist, and confusion about the feasibility of Iran’s nuclear ambitions endures, there is less doubt about the results for Iran’s patrons and neighbors. The global economy dodged recession because the Strait of Hormuz was not closed, a diplomatic feat the BBC reported may have involved help from Chinese government officials as well.

How The Abraham Accords Impact The Energy Industry

There are several Muslim-majority nations with significant energy industry export sectors that could find themselves more closely aligned with U.S. interests in the wake of Iran’s waning regional power. One obvious candidate for expansion, according to the Israeli media, is Azerbaijan. This secular state, home to millions of Shi’a Muslims, already has an exemplary relationship with Israel. Should Azerbaijan join the Accords, the European energy market would be the most significant immediate beneficiary, since Azeri energy could flow westwards.

According to a Meta report published in May, the social media platform disrupted disinformation campaigns “originating from Iran, China and Romania,” including Azeri-language posts about “criticisms of the US, President Biden and Israel’s actions in Gaza.” Despite these efforts to sway public opinion, Baku’s alleged cooperation with Jerusalem during the summer war clearly indicated that Azerbaijan’s alliances are not defined by religious solidarity. Kamal Kharrazi, a top adviser to Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reportedly warned Azerbaijani officials about Israel’s expanding influence. The prospect of Azerbaijan joining the Abraham Accords would further deteriorate Tehran’s influence in the energy-rich Caucasus region.

There are other promising candidates for the Abraham Accords. Syria, assuming it opts to join, would serve as a dramatic example of a nation’s ability to pivot allegiances. Syria’s President Ahmed al-Shaara could demonstrate that his claims of being a changed man focused on economic development, not religious dogma, are more than mere rhetoric. Doing so would also allow the economic development of Syria’s underutilized energy resources. It must be noted that Azerbaijan played an active role in facilitating talks between Turkey and Israel over the regime change in Syria.

Central Asian states, including Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, which, like Azerbaijan, are largely secular majority Muslim countries with good relations with Israel, could also make excellent additions. They are, by and large, energy-exporting states dependent on commodity revenues. Hooking them into an emerging geoeconomic framework under the auspices of the Abraham Accords could economically help reinforce these states against encroaching Russian and Chinese influence, while simultaneously boosting development and ties to the West.

China’s Pivot And The Abraham Accords

In Tehran’s hour of need, Iran’s axis of allies folded under American pressure. Russia, bogged down in Ukraine, refused to act against Israel. Beijing could have credibly supported Iran in defense of its strategic partnership. Instead, China opted for low energy prices amid fears that further escalation would damage its economy. Now, in the aftermath of the ceasefire, Beijing has both hard choices and opportunities ahead of it.

China is far more reliant on Arab states for energy than it is on Iran. Considering Iran’s waning influence throughout the global energy industry, Beijing’s only hope of advantageous deals and engagement with the Middle East now lies with the Arab states. The Arab states, which are increasingly likely to join the Abraham Accords promoted by the second Trump administration, are the key for China to sidestep Iranian ambitions.

Amongst aspirants to the accords, China already has close relations with a few of the above-mentioned Central Asian states. In Azerbaijan, China maintains a pragmatic, growing strategic partnership rooted in energy, infrastructure, and regional connectivity. Likewise, the Chinese company Fidi now has an agreement to do business in Syria. Thus, China may even find strategic utility in supporting the Abraham Accords, especially as they relate to cross-border economic opportunities.

The Abraham Accords may become a coalition of nations with which diverse nations can reliably do business, now less restricted by religious rivalries. Overall, a Muslim country’s ability to maintain harmonious relations with Israel is often seen as indicative of its potential for constructive engagement with the United States. This could become a rare example of a cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy that offers no conflicts with Chinese diplomatic interests. To the contrary, the two superpowers are aligned in their desire to keep energy supply chains running smoothly. Leveraging Israel’s role to foster a network of allied states, thereby enhancing energy security on the global stage, may be more obvious today in Beijing than it is on the streets of Washington, D.C., although the ultimate political outcome remains to be seen.