New analysis warns that rising competition for wood fibre, tightening regulation, and climate disruptions threaten global paper, packaging, and textile supply chains
Canopy and Finance Earth outline strategic pathways for brands and investors to reduce virgin wood exposure and integrate resilience planning
$2 billion blended finance mechanism designed to scale circular and Next Gen textile materials in a major global market
A new research brief released during the World Economic Forum warns that global wood dependent supply chains face mounting commercial and ecological risks as rising demand, climate impacts, and regulatory pressure push forests toward ecological limits. The brief, produced by environmental non profit Canopy with Finance Earth, argues that business as usual sourcing of virgin wood will expose brands and investors to higher costs, supply volatility, and reputational and legal risk in the decade ahead.
The brief emerges as Canopy works with more than 1,000 consumer brands representing over $1.2 trillion in combined annual revenue to reduce deforestation and scale circular alternatives across industries where wood is a primary input, including textiles and packaging. The organisation is also launching a $2 billion blended finance platform aimed at accelerating commercial adoption of sustainable textiles and Next Gen materials in a major global textile manufacturing economy, with participation from government actors, private sector partners, investors, and philanthropies.
A Tighter Market for Wood Fibre
The 2026 issue brief, titled Paper Thin Comfort and jointly authored with Finance Earth, finds that escalating demand for wood fibre across energy, construction, packaging, and man made cellulosic fibre production is converging with climate driven supply shocks and new regulatory constraints. According to the analysis, these dynamics point to structurally tighter markets for certified and traceable virgin wood over the medium term, with implications for cost, compliance, and growth across paper, packaging, and fashion value chains. Embedded graphics in the report illustrate global increases in bioenergy demand, engineered timber uptake, and wildfire related wood losses, reinforcing the constraints facing commercial forestry.
The brief warns that rising input costs and sourcing volatility will be most acute for companies tied to paper based packaging and textiles, where virgin wood pulp already accounts for roughly one fifth of global wood use. Brands dependent on e-commerce driven packaging and viscose based textiles are flagged as particularly exposed.
Nicole Rycroft, Founder and Executive Director of Canopy, said: “Forests are one of our greatest climate allies and central to meeting global climate and nature targets, yet current sourcing models and supply chains are pushing them to breaking point. This brief makes it clear: if companies and investors stay locked into business-as-usual wood sourcing, they are signing up for higher costs, greater supply vulnerability, and growing regulatory and reputational risk. This exposes businesses unnecessarily, given there is a clear exit ramp with Next Gen and alternative sources.”
Compliance Costs and Investor Scrutiny
The authors highlight expanding due diligence requirements in the EU, Canada, the United Kingdom, and other jurisdictions focused on eliminating deforestation, forest degradation, and forced or child labour from supply chains. The upcoming European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), entering into force in late 2026, is expected to reshape sourcing expectations for forest-derived inputs by restricting market access for non-compliant commodities and increasing competition for certified volumes.
In parallel, investors are setting stricter conditions toward deforestation free portfolios and are beginning to withdraw capital from companies considered high risk on environmental or supply chain metrics. The brief notes growing alignment with climate related disclosure regimes and the likelihood that cost of capital could rise for companies that fail to adapt.
RELATED ARTICLE: Microsoft Builds First Wood Datacenters, Cutting Carbon Emissions by 35%
Strategic Pathways for Brands
The report lays out a three-part framework for companies to mitigate exposure and build resilience:
• Reduce reliance on virgin wood by scaling recycled and Next Gen fibres derived from agricultural residues, waste textiles, or recycled materials
• De-risk remaining wood supply through credible certification, full traceability, and screening for ecological and social risks affecting Indigenous Peoples and local communities
• Plan for future shocks by integrating wood-related scenarios into stress testing, procurement, and capital allocation processes
Elizabeth Beall, Managing Director of Finance Earth, said: “The good news is that many corporates engaged in wood fibre sourcing are already starting to consider the financial implication of these risks to their bottom line. By quantifying the risks associated with business as usual wood fibre sourcing, businesses are able to see the clear rationale for investing in resilience and doubling down on sourcing of lower risk supply.”
Financing the Transition
To address scale constraints, Canopy’s $2 billion blended finance vehicle is intended to catalyse commercial production of Next Gen textile materials and help build domestic value chains aligned with circular manufacturing and climate objectives. The platform will aggregate capital from public and private sources to de risk early facilities and accelerate producer uptake.
Why It Matters for Executives and Investors
For executives and financial institutions, the message is not purely ecological. The brief positions circular and low-impact fibres as a hedge against compliance shocks, raw material volatility, and shifting consumer expectations. The concluding section argues that aligning capital allocation with circular inputs will enhance business continuity and reduce exposure to tightening regulatory and investor scrutiny over forests.
Global Significance
As climate and nature constraints reshape commodity markets, wood joins other raw materials under scrutiny from regulators, financiers, and supply chain officers seeking to reconcile commercial growth with climate aligned pathways. The Davos announcements suggest that forest-dependent sectors are approaching a pivotal period in which resilience, traceability, and circularity move from voluntary commitments to strategic imperatives across global markets.
Read the 2026 Paper Thin Comfort here.
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