Lower oil and gas prices are expected to dent the second-quarter earnings at BP, despite higher output and stronger refining margins.
BP’s realizations in the oil production and operations segment are expected to be $600 million-$800 million lower in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, the supermajor said in a trading statement on Friday ahead of publishing full Q2 results on August 5.
Brent oil prices averaged $67.88 per barrel in the second quarter compared to $75.73 a barrel in the first quarter 2025, the company said.
BP’s gas and low carbon energy segment is seen posting realizations up to $300 million lower versus the prior quarter, including changes in non-Henry Hub natural gas marker prices.
The gas marketing and trading result is expected to be average, BP said, but noted that the “The oil trading result is expected to be strong.”
Despite the guidance for reduced profits from oil and gas realizations amid lower oil prices, shares in BP rose in London by 2% after the trading statement was released as the supermajor said its upstream production in the second quarter is expected to be higher compared to the prior quarter, and as it noted a marked rise in refining margins in the downstream division.
BP has been under intense pressure from activist investor Elliott in recent months to cut costs and boost share performance and has once again become the topic of market speculation that it’s a target for a blockbuster acquisition in the sector.
BP is not the only supermajor to have warned that the lower oil prices in the second quarter would hurt profits.
Shell, for example, expects to have booked “significantly lower” trading and optimization results for the second quarter compared to the prior quarter, while it also slightly reduced the range of its natural gas and LNG production for the April-June period.
U.S. supermajor ExxonMobil has also warned the market that weaker oil and gas prices during the second quarter would affect its financial results, and rather substantially, at that.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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