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By Ann Saphir and Howard Schneider Palo Alto, California (Reuters) – Kevin Warsh, an apparent frontrunner to be U.S. President Donald Trump’s pick to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve, on Friday suggested a possible pathway to the lower policy rates that Trump has repeatedly pressed the current Fed Chair Jerome Powell to deliver, and delivered a fresh dig at the Fed’s conduct of monetary policy. A large and often growing Fed balance sheet can work at cross-purposes with the Fed’s main policy lever of setting short-term borrowing rates, Warsh told a monetary policy panel at Stanford University’s…

By Howard Schneider PALO ALTO (Reuters) – The Fed should not commit to further interest rate cuts until it is clear whether the Trump administration’s tariff policies lead to persistent inflation or a less serious, one-time adjustment in prices, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Friday. Musalem said he currently puts even odds on either of the two paths for inflation. In theory, tariffs should prompt a one-time price jump similar to the imposition of a tax; but coming off the heels of recent high inflation the effect could be longer-lasting, and may also be more persistent since…

By Howard Schneider PALO ALTO (Reuters) -President Donald Trump’s unfolding trade policy may curb U.S. productivity and possibly require higher interest rates to contain inflation in a less efficient economy, Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook said on Friday. “I expect to see a drag on productivity in the near term stemming from the recent changes to trade policy and the related uncertainty,” Cook said in remarks prepared for a delivery at an economics conference at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. Uncertainty around Trump’s plans could discourage investment, Cook said, while the rising cost of imported intermediate goods and equipment could also…

By Alexandra Alper WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The U.S. federal human resources agency at the heart of billionaire Trump adviser Elon Musk’s efforts to slash the federal workforce on Friday canceled a contract it had awarded to Workday and which had excluded other bidders. The contract for a new cloud-based HR platform, signed on May 2 and awarded without seeking bids from rivals, had raised eyebrows among current and former employees of the Office of Personnel Management. They had described the sole-source contract as irregular, given the competition in an industry that includes ADP and SAP, and expressed surprise to see OPM’s…

By Michael S. Derby and Ann Saphir (Reuters) -Top U.S. bank lending officers reported weaker demand from businesses and consumers for many types of credit during the first three months of the year, according to a Federal Reserve report released on Monday, reversing a short-lived surge in loan demand the previous quarter. The number of banks reporting weaker demand for commercial and industrial loans outnumbered those reporting stronger demand by the biggest margin in a year for small firms, the central bank’s April Senior Loan Officer Survey detailing activity during the first quarter showed. For large firms, demand for loans…

Farmworkers harvest lettuce in Brawley, Calif., on Dec. 10. The U.S. farm economy has been squeezed by President Trump’s tariffs. (Sandy Huffaker / AFP / Getty Images) President Trump’s tariffs are upending crop trading, delaying tractor purchases and constraining imports of chemical supplies into the United States. That’s the main message from big agricultural businesses as they report their quarterly earnings, giving an early glimpse into the far-reaching impacts of the U.S. president’s trade war. The disruptions in global trade threaten to extend a years-long slump in the U.S. farm industry, which had already been struggling with ample supplies, depressed…

(Bloomberg) — US consumer prices probably picked up in April after the smallest advance in nine months, foreshadowing a broader acceleration as many companies seek to pass on higher tariffs. Most Read from Bloomberg A closely watched gauge of prices paid by Americans for goods and services, excluding volatile food and energy costs, is forecast to have risen 0.3%, based on a Bloomberg survey of economists. In March, the so-called core consumer price index inched up just 0.1%. While Tuesday’s report is likely to show limited pass-through so far of higher US duties on imported goods, many economists anticipate the…

WASHINGTON (AP) — What, exactly, the Republican Party stands for in terms of economic policy in the second Trump administration is a question reaching an inflection point. Is it the party that promotes free-market prosperity or a 21st-century populism? Does it stick with the “No new taxes” pledge that has been GOP political orthodoxy for decades or do Republicans tax the rich, as President Donald Trump suggests? Roll back the Obama-era’s health care expansion and the President Joe Biden’s green energy investments or protect the federal flow of investment dollars generating jobs in the states? Slash deficit spending or spike…

Mortgage interest rates are up today. According to Zillow data, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has risen by one basis point to 6.72%, and the 15-year fixed rate has increased by seven basis points to 6.03%. Mortgage rates typically go up when the U.S. economy thrives and down when the economy struggles. A lot of economic data will be released this upcoming week, especially surrounding inflation. This data could move home loan rates one way or the other — however, it probably won’t cause any dramatic shifts. Dig deeper: How inflation impacts mortgage rates Have questions about buying, owning, or…

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil giant Aramco posted first-quarter profits of $26 billion on Sunday, down 4.6% from the prior year as falling global oil prices undermine the kingdom’s multi-trillion-dollar development plans. Aramco, formally known as the Saudi Arabian Oil Co., had revenues of $108.1 billion over the quarter, the company reported in a filing on Riyadh’s Tadawul stock exchange. The company saw $107.2 billion in revenues and profits of $27.2 billion the same quarter last year. Saudi Arabia has promised to invest $600 billion in the U.S. over the course of President Donald Trump’s…