Author: omc_admin

April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show the first clear signs of inflationary impacts from President Trump’s tariffs. The report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, will greet investors less than 24 hours after markets soared on news the US and China have placed a 90-day pause on a wide swath of tariffs between the two countries. “We expect the first signs of tariff related inflation to show up in the April CPI released on Tuesday,” UBS chief economist Jonathan Pingle wrote in a note to clients on Monday. Inflation is expected to have picked…

Federal Reserve governor Adriana Kugler said Monday that steeper tariffs will drive prices higher, acting to push down incomes and lower economic growth. “Although higher tariffs on US imported goods may affect our macroeconomy through many channels … I think they will primarily act as a negative supply shock, raising prices and decreasing economic activity,” Kugler said in a speech in Dublin, Ireland. Kugler’s comments come even as the US and China have agreed to deescalate and slash tariff rates by 115 percentage points for 90 days as both sides discuss fairer trade between the two countries. The move will…

By Stella Qiu SYDNEY (Reuters) -Core inflation in Australia slowed to a three-year low in the first quarter as costs in the services sector cooled markedly, data showed on Wednesday, supporting the case for another cut in interest rates in coming weeks. Investors are fully expecting a quarter-point rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia on May 20 given the darkening outlook for global growth caused largely by U.S. tariffs, even as a stronger-than-expected reading in headline inflation saw some scale back aggressive bets for five rate cuts this year. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the…

By Shadia Nasralla LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices extended declines on Wednesday and were set for their largest monthly drop in almost three and a half years as the global trade war eroded the outlook for fuel demand while concern over mounting supply also weighed. Brent crude futures were down 77 cents, or 1.2%, at $63.48 a barrel by 1305 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped 74 cents, also 1.2%, to $59.68. So far this month Brent and WTI have lost about 15% and 16% respectively for the biggest percentage falls since November 2021. Both benchmarks slumped after…

By Sheila Dang and Shadia Nasralla HOUSTON/LONDON (Reuters) -Big Oil’s first-quarter earnings have shown a clear split in how companies are positioned to weather the downturn sparked by a slump in oil prices to a four-year low in April. Investors were focused on whether companies would cut share repurchases, since lower crude prices would leave them with less cash to fund the programs. Buybacks and dividends are key to investor interest in the oil industry. U.S. oil producer Exxon Mobil and UK-based Shell kept the pace of share buybacks. Their top rivals, U.S.-based Chevron and UK-based BP said they would…

(Reuters) -The U.S. Federal Reserve’s incoming vice chair for supervision is seeking to review the confidential ratings for the health of the country’s biggest banks, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday. If any adjustments were to be made to the supervisory ratings, which have gone through layers of evaluation at the central bank, some bank examiners would likely raise concerns, according to the report. The Fed is yet to release the new ratings for U.S. banks with over $100 billion or more in assets and intends to wait until the Senate confirms Michelle Bowman as the new top banking…

By Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir PALO ALTO, California (Reuters) -The Federal Reserve needs more time to see how the economy responds to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff and other policies before figuring out the right response, Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack said on Friday, noting that much of the administration’s sweeping agenda remains unclear. “I stand ready to move whenever we have clear and convincing evidence, but … given the overall breadth of the policies that have been discussed and put in place, I think there’s a real question about what those impacts are going to look like,…

By Ann Saphir and Howard Schneider Palo Alto, California (Reuters) – Kevin Warsh, an apparent frontrunner to be U.S. President Donald Trump’s pick to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve, on Friday suggested a possible pathway to the lower policy rates that Trump has repeatedly pressed the current Fed Chair Jerome Powell to deliver, and delivered a fresh dig at the Fed’s conduct of monetary policy. A large and often growing Fed balance sheet can work at cross-purposes with the Fed’s main policy lever of setting short-term borrowing rates, Warsh told a monetary policy panel at Stanford University’s…

By Howard Schneider PALO ALTO (Reuters) – The Fed should not commit to further interest rate cuts until it is clear whether the Trump administration’s tariff policies lead to persistent inflation or a less serious, one-time adjustment in prices, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Friday. Musalem said he currently puts even odds on either of the two paths for inflation. In theory, tariffs should prompt a one-time price jump similar to the imposition of a tax; but coming off the heels of recent high inflation the effect could be longer-lasting, and may also be more persistent since…

By Howard Schneider PALO ALTO (Reuters) -President Donald Trump’s unfolding trade policy may curb U.S. productivity and possibly require higher interest rates to contain inflation in a less efficient economy, Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook said on Friday. “I expect to see a drag on productivity in the near term stemming from the recent changes to trade policy and the related uncertainty,” Cook said in remarks prepared for a delivery at an economics conference at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. Uncertainty around Trump’s plans could discourage investment, Cook said, while the rising cost of imported intermediate goods and equipment could also…