Are We Likely to See OPEC Enter Maximum Production Mode in 2025?

Are we likely to see OPEC+ enter maximum production mode this year?

That was the question Rigzone posed to Caleb Jasso, Senior Policy Advisor at the Institute for Energy Research, and Enverus Intelligence Research Director Al Salazar.

Responding to the question, Jasso told Rigzone that, although OPEC+ has increased its production targets for August, “it remains unclear whether this will later result in maximum production this year”.

“OPEC+ is likely trying to recapture market share lost to the increased production and future production potential of the United States, Canada, and countries such as Argentina and Guyana,” Jasso said.

“By increasing supply and thereby lowering prices, OPEC+ may also be attempting to reestablish their geopolitical influence and maximize exports to China, while demand remains relatively high,” he added.

“China is the world’s largest importer and has begun decreasing its overall import percentage, which may prove challenging to OPEC+,” Jasso went on to state.

In his response, Salazar told Rigzone that we are likely to see OPEC+ enter maximum production mode this year, “assuming maximum production mode is the full unwind of cuts (2.2 million barrels per day + 0.3 million barrel per day UAE target upgrade)”.

“OPEC appears highly likely to enter maximum production mode in 2025, due to apparent alignment with President Trump’s desire for lower oil prices and stronger than anticipated global oil market fundamentals,” Salazar said.

“The cartel’s intent to accelerate the unwind of its production cuts is a clear signal defending price is no longer its top priority. Meanwhile, highly anticipated demand headwinds due to global trade uncertainty have yet to emerge in terms of weaker oil demand,” he added.

Salazar told Rigzone that global oil demand on a year over year basis has grown around one million barrels per day and added that “seasonal tailwinds [are] about to offer added market support in the second half of 2025”.

“OPEC adding barrels amidst tight market fundamentals is consistent with the cartel’s alignment with President Trump and their own desires to gain back market share,” Salazar went on to state.

Rigzone has contacted OPEC and the White House for comment on Jasso and Salazar’s statements. Rigzone has also contacted the State Council of the People’s Republic of China, Global Affairs Canada, Argentina’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Guyana’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment on Jasso’s statement. At the time of writing, none of the above have responded to Rigzone.

A statement posted on OPEC’s website on July 5 announced that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman “will implement a production adjustment of 548,000 barrels per day in August”.

“The eight OPEC+ countries, which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023, namely Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman met virtually on 5 July 2025, to review global market conditions and outlook,” the statement noted.

“In view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories, and in accordance with the decision agreed upon on 5 December 2024 to start a gradual and flexible return of the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary adjustments starting from 1 April 2025, the eight participating countries will implement a production adjustment of 548,000 barrels per day in August 2025 from July 2025 required production level,” it added.

“This is equivalent to four monthly increments … The gradual increases may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions. This flexibility will allow the group to continue to support oil market stability,” it continued.

“The eight OPEC+ countries also noted that this measure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation. The eight countries reiterated their collective commitment to achieve full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation, including the additional voluntary production adjustments that were agreed to be monitored by the JMMC during its 53rd meeting held on April 3rd 2024,” it went on to state.

The statement noted that these countries also confirmed their intention to fully compensate for any overproduced volume since January 2024.

“The eight OPEC+ countries will hold monthly meetings to review market conditions, conformity, and compensation,” the statement added, revealing that the eight countries will meet on August 3 “to decide on September production levels”.

A statement posted on OPEC’s site on July 10 announcing the launch of the 2025 OPEC World Oil Outlook stated that “this year’s publication sees that the world will require more energy in the decades to come, with global energy demand set to … expand by 23 percent to 2050”.

“Global oil demand is set for continued robust growth, reaching almost 123 million barrels per day by 2050,” the statement added.

“The analysis and key findings take on board recent energy and economic-related developments, particularly the substantial shifts in energy policy as decision-makers address the challenges of energy security, energy affordability, and the need to reduce emissions,” the statement continued.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com