The United States pumped an all-time high of 13.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in 2024, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Petroleum Supply Annual released on Friday. That tops the previous record of 12.9 million bpd set in 2019, cementing the U.S. as the world’s top producer for a sixth straight year.
Production gains came largely from the Permian Basin, where output surged to over 7 million bpd last year. New Mexico posted the strongest growth rate among states, up nearly 13% year-on-year, while Texas volumes edged higher but have shown signs of flattening after years of steep growth. Offshore Gulf of Mexico output also posted modest gains.
The record came despite oil prices averaging nearly $12 per barrel less than in 2023, highlighting how efficiency gains and high-grading of drilling locations continue to support production even in weaker markets. But the pace of growth is slowing. Annual gains dropped to around 120,000 bpd in 2024 compared to the 1-million-plus annual increases that defined the shale boom years.
Refinery inputs also rose, averaging 15.3 million bpd, but U.S. refining capacity itself continued to shrink as older plants were idled, including facilities in California and Texas. That tightening capacity leaves the U.S. increasingly dependent on high utilization rates and imports of some refined products to meet demand.
On the trade front, U.S. crude exports hit another record above 4 million bpd last year, buoyed by steady demand in Europe and Asia. At the same time, imports of heavier crude grades rose as refiners sought to balance the light-oil slate coming out of shale fields.
The bigger picture, however, is that growth is running out of headroom. The EIA expects 2025 production to average 13.4 million bpd, only marginally above last year’s level, and then begin slipping in 2026 if prices stay in the $60s or lower. With OPEC+ adding barrels and global demand growth slowing, the shale patch may be approaching a plateau.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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