Analysts Offer Prediction for Next OPEC 8 Meeting

In a report sent to Rigzone by the Standard Chartered team on Tuesday, analysts at the company, including Standard Chartered Bank Commodities Research Head Paul Horsnell, offered a prediction for the next OPEC+ 8 meeting, which is currently scheduled to take place on Sunday.

“The ‘OPEC+ eight’ (the eight members who agreed additional voluntary output cuts in November 2023) meet on August 3, and we expect a decision to complete the unwind of that tranche of cuts, adding back 548,000 barrels per day to September targets,” the analysts said in the report.

“This will effectively pass the torch for decisions at the margin to the ‘OPEC+ nine’ (i.e., the eight plus Gabon) that agreed voluntary cuts of 1.66 million barrels per day in April 2023,” the analysts added.

In the report, the Standard Chartered Bank analysts said rolling back the November 2023 tranche of voluntary cuts has improved market transparency and allowed traders to obtain a more realistic picture of spare capacity. They added that they think removing the April 2023 tranche would have a similar effect.

“With low inventories, steady demand indications and faltering non-OPEC+ supply growth, we see scope for further accelerated unwinding,” the Standard Chartered Bank analysts noted in the report.

“We think a rapid removal of the April 2023 tranche of cuts is possible; we do not expect actual output to increase by as much as nominal increases given existing overproduction and compensation requirements from some members, and capacity constraints in others,” they said.

“A drive for compensation for past overproduction remains to the fore. The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee met virtually on 28 July to review May and June production data,” they continued.

“The communiqué issued after the meeting noted overall conformity among OPEC+ members, with a request for the submission of updated compensation plans for countries not yet achieving full conformity with their promises,” the analysts went on to highlight.

Rigzone has contacted OPEC for comment on the Standard Chartered report. At the time of writing, OPEC has not responded to Rigzone.

A statement posted on the OPEC website on July 28 highlighted that the 61st Meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee took place via videoconference that day.

“The JMMC reviewed the crude oil production data for the months of May and June 2025 and noted the overall conformity for OPEC and non-OPEC countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation,” that statement said.

“The Committee reiterated the critical importance of achieving full conformity and compensation, and requested countries that did not achieve full conformity to submit updated compensation plans to the OPEC Secretariat by 18 August 2025,” it added.

“The Committee also reaffirmed that it will continue to monitor adherence to the production adjustments decided upon at the 38th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting held on 5 December 2024, and the additional voluntary production adjustments announced by some participating OPEC and non-OPEC countries as agreed upon in the 52nd JMMC held on 1 February 2024,” it continued.

A statement posted on OPEC’s site on July 5 announced that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman “will implement a production adjustment of 548,000 barrels per day in August”.

“The eight OPEC+ countries, which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023, namely Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman met virtually on 5 July 2025, to review global market conditions and outlook,” that statement noted.

“In view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories, and in accordance with the decision agreed upon on 5 December 2024 to start a gradual and flexible return of the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary adjustments starting from 1 April 2025, the eight participating countries will implement a production adjustment of 548,000 barrels per day in August 2025 from July 2025 required production level,” it added.

“This is equivalent to four monthly increments … The gradual increases may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions. This flexibility will allow the group to continue to support oil market stability,” it went on to state.

“The eight OPEC+ countries also noted that this measure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation. The eight countries reiterated their collective commitment to achieve full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation, including the additional voluntary production adjustments that were agreed to be monitored by the JMMC during its 53rd meeting held on April 3rd 2024,” it continued.

That statement also noted that the eight OPEC+ countries confirmed their intention to fully compensate for any overproduced volume since January 2024.

“The eight OPEC+ countries will hold monthly meetings to review market conditions, conformity, and compensation. The eight countries will meet on 3 August 2025 to decide on September production levels,” the statement highlighted.

According to a table accompanying that statement, August 2025 “required production” is 948,000 barrels per day for Algeria, 4.171 million barrels per day for Iraq, 2.518 million barrels per day for Kuwait, 9.756 million barrels per day for Saudi Arabia, 3.272 million barrels per day for the UAE, 1.532 million barrels per day for Kazakhstan, 792,000 barrels per day for Oman, and 9.344 million barrels per day for Russia.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com