OPEC+ will complete the unwinding of its largest production cut next month after agreeing this weekend to boost output by 547,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September in a move that was widely expected by the market and oil industry analysts.
What’s next for the OPEC+ oil production policy and the last remaining layer of production cuts of 1.66 million bpd is anyone’s guess. The group of OPEC and non-OPEC producers, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, left the door wide open to any further production adjustment – in either direction – and to all sorts of forecasts and analyses by market watchers and investment banks.
The group of eight major OPEC+ producers agreed on Sunday, as expected, to continue with the rollback of the 2.2 million bpd cuts. This will see the alliance roll back all these cuts, and the UAE adding 300,000 bpd by the end of next month.
The short-term strategy is clear. The strategy for after September—anything but.
“The big question now remains whether prices can be sustained into the autumn months as global demand slows and Trump’s tariffs impact global trade,” analysts at Saxo Bank said in a note on Monday.
Autumn Blues
The OPEC+ producers cited “current healthy oil market fundamentals and steady global economic outlook” to justify the continued rollback of the output cuts, as they have been doing since early spring.
The group is betting on peak summer fuel demand, but this will come to an end in September. Near-term fundamentals may be strong, but the market is bracing for a major surplus once the peak demand season ends.
Related: Oil Drops as Markets Digest OPEC+ Supply Decision
Current demand in the key crude-importing region, Asia, appears to be not as strong as OPEC+ suggests with every press release on its production policy.
Crude oil imports into Asia fell in July to 25 million bpd, down from 27.88 million bpd in June, per data by LSEG Oil Research cited by Reuters columnist Clyde Russell.
Asia’s July crude imports slumped to the lowest monthly level in exactly a year, according to the data.
China is boosting imports, but it’s likely that these have been opportunistic purchases at lower oil prices when June and July-loading cargoes were arranged. Chinese refiners have been building up stockpiles in recent months, as it’s estimated that China has been adding just over 1 million bpd to its stockpiles so far this year.
The volatile prices and the spikes in oil in June during the Israel-Iran war may have influenced buying for cargoes set to arrive in China in August and September, and these could be lower, due to the price hikes.
Looking at fundamentals, the market appears to be headed to a glut in the fourth quarter of the year, analysts concur.
“While OPEC+ policy remains flexible, we assume OPEC+ will keep its production quota unchanged after September as we expect the pace of builds in OECD commercial stocks to accelerate and seasonal demand tailwinds to fade away,” Goldman Sachs said earlier this week.
The investment bank kept its oil price forecast for Brent crude, seeing the international benchmark averaging $64 over the fourth quarter of the year despite recent developments that have pushed both Brent and West Texas Intermediate higher than Goldman’s Q4 target.
“We believe the group is finished with its supply hikes, as we move out of the stronger summer demand period and inventories start to rise,” ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said on Monday.
Geopolitical Upside
The group hasn’t signaled any direction for after September, but the producers warned that the rollback of the cuts could be subject to change.
“The phase-out of the additional voluntary production adjustments may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions,” OPEC said.
This leaves the market hanging and guessing which geopolitical or trade event could overshadow fundamentals and warrant a new OPEC+ intervention sooner than thought.
The messaging from the latest meeting is “all options remain on the table — including bringing those barrels back, pausing increases for now, or even reversing the recent policy action,” Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told Bloomberg.
The most immediate material change in market balances could be the U.S. seeking to choke off Russian supply to India and Turkey, if Putin lets the August 8 deadline to seek peace in Ukraine lapse without any action.
Analysts assume that Russia and China will find a way to keep crude trade flowing after a short period of adjustment or deeper price discounts for Russia’s crude.
India and Turkey are more vulnerable, and if they stop buying Russian oil, OPEC+ will have to tap into the last layer of 1.66 million bpd production cuts and return them to the market sooner than planned, which is by late 2026.
President Trump is threatening he would be “substantially raising” the tariff on India as “They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine.”
“India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits,” President Trump wrote on Truth Social on Monday.
The Trump Administration’s potential move to severely restrict Russian oil shipments could reduce and even erase the expected surplus on the market in late 2025.
But it is uncertain how long President Trump’s campaign pledge “I’ll end the war in Ukraine on day one in office” will take and whether the U.S. will move to impose secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil. The Trump Administration wants low oil and energy prices, which would be inconsistent with hiking the barriers to Russian oil exports.
Amidst all these geopolitical frictions and power plays, OPEC+ is watching and waiting for the right time to unwind the last remaining production cuts and reclaim market share lost to U.S. shale.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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