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Activate CEO’s Predictions on AI Search and Spatial Computing

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2025-11-05T12:00:01Z

Activate CEO Michael J. Wolf’s annual slide deck includes sections examining AI search and spatial computing.
Regarding AI search, Wolf details a system of licensing deals and third parties, including the rise of GEO firms.
Wolf also dives into how AI will empower the next generation of smart glasses and VR, a space where Apple and Meta invested.

Michael J. Wolf has spent years predicting where the tech and media industries are headed. In his latest annual slide deck, he examines two industries at the bleeding edge of tech: AI search and spatial computing.

The media veteran served as president and COO of MTV Networks in the 2000s and later served on the board at Yahoo. He’s led Activate Consulting, an agency he founded that specializes in internet businesses, for the last 15 years.

In Wolf’s 2026 Technology and Media Outlook Report, which he will present at WSJ’s Tech Live conference on Wednesday, the CEO outlines the rise of AI-powered search and spatial technology, including smart glasses, and how the segments can mature. His predictions touch on major players in AI, such as OpenAI and Anthropic, as well as companies with substantial investments in spatial hardware, including Apple and Meta.

Scroll on for an early look at where Wolf’s breakdowns of both industries — and where he sees each heading.

“Does the web really have a new front door?” Wolf asks in his section on AI search.

The cover image of Activate's AI search presentation


Activate

AI platforms saw a 1.5x boost in monthly users between 2024 and 2025, Activate found.

The jump in AI usage is pictured in Activate's slide deck


Activate

128 million people use generative AI monthly, according to the firm’s research.

AI usage across mediums is pictured in the Activate deck.


Activate

Explaining concepts was the leading use case Activate found for generative AI.

Use cases for generative AI are pictured in the Activate slide deck.


Activate

26% of adults use both AI and traditional search platforms, Activate found.

AI versus traditional search usages are pictured.


Activate

The firm predicts that 38 million more Americans will look to AI first for search queries by 2029.

The growth of AI for online search is pictured.


Activate

Wolf writes that AI added a new step to people’s search habits: “processing and planning.”

AI's third search step is pictured.


Activate

Google visits jumped 17% since the launch of AI Overviews, per Activate.

Google's increased visits since launching AI Overviews is pictured.


Activate

Google referral traffic, though, has dropped an estimated 10 percentage points.

Declining Google referral traffic to publishers is pictured.


Activate

Meanwhile, publishers have entered licensing and rev-share agreements with AI companies.

Licensing deals between publishers and AI companies are pictured.

Disclosure: OpenAI and Axel Springer have a multi-year content licensing deal that allows ChatGPT to summarize and answer user queries with select content from Axel Springer publications like Politico, Business Insider, and European properties like BILD and WELT.

Activate

Third parties like Tollbit and ProRata.ai have sprung up between publishers and AI companies.

Third parties to help publishers with licensing and attribution are pictured.


Activate

Wolf breaks down the difference between SEO and “GEO,” the new kid on the block.

SEO versus GEO is pictured.


Activate

The GEO market is growing, with third parties like Geostar and Botify promising to help optimize performance in the AI era.

Third parties to help with GEO are pictured.


Activate

41% of non-AI users are worried about privacy, per an Activate study.

Privacy concerns for AI search are pictured.


Activate

AI platforms seek to monetize by advertising, subscriptions, and ecommerce.

Monetization models for generative AI are pictured.


Activate

Wolf also takes a deep dive into spatial technology, the tech driving AR headsets and smart glasses.

The lead slide of Activate's spatial computing deck.


Activate

Apple, Meta, and Google are among those investing in spatial computing, betting it could be the next big platform.

The companies investing in spatial computing are pictured.


Activate

Spatial computing includes AR, VR, MR, and AI glasses.

A variety of spatial computing experiences are pictured.


Activate

Use cases for AI glasses include navigation and shopping.

Different examples of AI glasses are pictured.


Activate

49% of AI glasses owners use them for social media, per Activate’s research.

App usage on AI glasses is pictured.


Activate

Wolf predicts that spatial computing will be used across advertising, gaming, and vehicles.

Examples of spatial computing beyond glasses are pictured.


Activate

Meanwhile, the number of spatial computing apps has grown.

Spatial apps on different app stores are pictured.


Activate

Apple’s $3,499 Vision Pro headset allows users to watch concerts and tour homes. Its main rival is Meta’s Quest VR headsets.

Meta and Apple's spatial plays are pictured.


Activate

Tech companies like Meta, Samsung, and Snap have taken different approaches to the tech.

Different tech companies' approaches to spatial are pictured.


Activate

New smart glasses debuts have skyrocketed in the last five years.

A timeline of spacial hardware innovation is pictured.


Activate

What will the next generation of AI glasses look like? Wolf has some ideas…

Predictions for the next generation of spatial capabilities are pictured.


Activate

He predicts that a platform shift from smartphones to spatial devices will occur.

The platform shift from spatial technology is pictured.


Activate

Meta is using spatial computing to establish platform independence from Apple and Google.

How companies are using spatial to reinforce their core ambitions are pictured.


Activate

Technology super users are 4.3x more likely to use AI glasses each month, per Activate.

Super Users of spacial technology are pictured.


Activate

Wolf examines how spatial computing could one day supplant smartphones.

The timeline for spatial computing to supplant smartphones is pictured.


Activate

Wolf predicts that a ubiquitous spatial device will need to be see-through, ambient, and connected.

The qualifications for a ubiquitous ambient device are pictured.


Activate

He believes spatial devices will have weather and topographical data.

The data spatial tech will gather is pictured.


Activate

Training AI on data from the “real world” was critical to overcoming the “cold start problem.”

How AI and spacial tech work together is pictured.


Activate

Spatial technology will be used in healthcare, industrial, and defense industries, per Wolf.

How different businesses will use spacial technology is pictured.


Activate

The CEO outlines the spatial computing tech stack.

The spatial computing stack is pictured.


Activate

Companies like Verizon and AT&T will benefit from better spatial tech, Wolf predicts.

What's required to create more sophisticated spacial experiences is pictured.


Activate



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