AccuWeather Updates Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

In a media advisory sent to Rigzone by the AccuWeather team recently, AccuWeather said its hurricane experts are “slightly reducing the[ir] forecast for the highest potential number of named storms and hurricanes expected to develop [in the Atlantic] this season”.  

AccuWeather now forecasts 13-16 named storms and six to nine hurricanes for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, the advisory noted, adding that this is the first update to the AccuWeather 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast, which the advisory pointed out was first issued back in March.  

The initial forecast, which was also sent to Rigzone by the AccuWeather team earlier this year, predicted 13-18 named storms in 2025. That forecast expected 7-10 of those storms to strengthen into hurricanes, and three to five of those storms to strengthen into major hurricanes. AccuWeather also noted in that forecast that its hurricane experts “predict that three to six storms can directly impact the U.S. this year”. 

In its latest advisory, AccuWeather highlighted that the forecast for three to five major hurricanes and three to six direct impacts to the United States has not changed. It pointed out that there have been two direct impacts to the U.S. so far this year and said its hurricane experts are urging people, businesses, and officials near the coast and in inland areas that have been affected by hurricanes and tropical storms in recent years to remain prepared and vigilant.

“AccuWeather hurricane experts are constantly refining and integrating new data into our predictions,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said in the advisory.

“Unusual surges of dry air, Saharan dust, disruptive wind shear, cooler water temperatures off the western coast of Africa, and other atmospheric conditions have hampered multiple tropical waves from developing into tropical storms or hurricanes, during what are typically the peak weeks of tropical activity in the Atlantic basin,” DaSilva added.

“The range of named storms expected to develop in the Atlantic basin this season has been reduced, but the risk of direct impacts has not changed. AccuWeather continues to forecast three to six direct impacts to the United States this season,” DaSilva continued, warning that “it only takes one storm to create a devastating hurricane season”.

“Please do not let your guard down or become complacent. The tropics have been unusually quiet during the typical peak weeks of the season, just like they were last year,” DaSilva warned in the advisory.

AccuWeather’s Lead Hurricane Expert went on to state in the advisory that the exceptionally high water temperatures in the Gulf have increased the concerns for potential rapid intensification in the coming weeks.

“The heat and energy stored in the Gulf reached record territory this week,” DaSilva said in the advisory.

“The waters are dangerously warm. This surplus of energy in the Gulf can act like rocket fuel,” he explained.

“If a storm spins up or moves into the Gulf, and atmospheric conditions are conducive for development, these warm waters can support rapid intensification, and even cases of extreme rapid intensification,” he added.

“When a storm, like Hurricane Erin, strengthens with maximum sustained winds increasing 58 miles per hour or more within 24 hours, it meets the threshold of extreme rapid intensification,” DaSilva continued.

In a statement posted on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) website last month, the U.S. Department of Commerce bureau announced an update to its 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast.

NOAA said in that statement that forecasters from its National Weather Service updated the number of expected named storms to 13-18. Of these, 5-9 could become hurricanes, including two to five “major hurricanes”, NOAA warned, pointing out that a major hurricane has winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.

In this statement, NOAA noted that the likelihood of above-normal Atlantic hurricane activity is 50 percent. It projected a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 15 percent chance of a below-normal season.

In a statement posted on its website back in May, NOAA revealed that forecasters within its National Weather Service predicted above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin in 2025.

The organization noted in that statement that its outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season predicted a 30 percent chance of a near-normal season, a 60 percent chance of an above-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA said in that statement that the agency was forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms. Of those, six to 10 were forecast to become hurricanes, including three to five major hurricanes, NOAA warned in the statement, adding that it had a 70 percent confidence in these ranges.

Atlantic weather systems have severely affected oil and gas operations in the Gulf in the past. For example, at its peak, Hurricane Ida shut in 95.65 percent of oil production in the Gulf on August 29, 2021, and 94.47 percent of gas production on August 31, 2021, U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) figures revealed.

At the time of writing, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center website is tracking two weather disturbances in the Atlantic.

One disturbance is situated in the Central Tropical Atlantic and had a 90 percent chance of cyclone formation in seven days, as of 8am EDT on September 16, according to the site. The other is situated in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic and had a 20 percent chance of cyclone formation in seven days, as of 8am EDT on September 16, the site showed.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com