New Delhi: India’s recalibration of crude oil imports marks a structural shift from opportunistic discount buying to disciplined geopolitical risk management, according to analytics firm GlobalData.
With oil accounting for roughly a quarter of India’s primary energy consumption and import dependence at about 87 per cent, the country is prioritising compliance resilience, supply diversification and stronger US energy linkages as part of a more strategic energy security doctrine, the firm said.
India, the world’s third-largest oil consumer, is projected by the International Energy Agency to see demand rise from 5.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2024 to 8 mbpd by 2035. Import dependence could increase to 92 per cent by 2035 despite ongoing domestic exploration, widening exposure to external supply shocks.
Arnab Nath, Associate Project Manager of Economic Research at GlobalData, said the growing gap between demand and domestic output is driving efforts to broaden the supplier base and reduce reliance on concentrated or politically constrained supply corridors.
India’s crude sourcing has shifted significantly since 2022. Russia’s share of India’s oil imports rose from 2.7 per cent before the Ukraine conflict to 25.9 per cent in 2024 on the back of discounted cargoes. However, imports from Russia fell more than 40 per cent year-on-year in January 2026 amid tightening trade and sanctions dynamics.
At the same time, the United States and Venezuela have re-emerged in India’s crude mix. While Venezuelan volumes are expected to remain limited due to heavy grades and production constraints, they are seen as a tactical alternative as India seeks to rebalance geopolitical risks, GlobalData said, adding the shift is also influenced by US tariff threats linked to Iran-related trade.
According to Nath, the recalibration could ease near-term friction between New Delhi and Washington and open space for deeper cooperation in liquefied natural gas (LNG), critical minerals and clean-technology supply chains.
However, he noted that India will continue to prioritise price competitiveness and supply security, maintaining sourcing flexibility, including from the Middle East and select sanctioned-origin barrels where feasible.
For Washington, the move reinforces the effectiveness of tariffs and sanctions as negotiating tools, potentially making energy a recurring element in bilateral trade discussions, the report said.
Following the India-US trade agreement announced on February 2, India faces stronger incentives to reduce sanctions exposure and tariff risks while preserving access to competitively priced crude. The US had imposed an additional 25 per cent tariff in August 2025 linked to Russian oil purchases and signalled the possibility of further increases.
GlobalData said refiners are now optimising for compliance resilience and supply continuity. While Russian crude may remain part of the mix when commercially viable, India’s overall direction points to a broader supplier base anchored by stronger US energy ties and selective engagement with alternative sources.
“India’s crude strategy is evolving from opportunistic discount capture to a more structured approach to managing geopolitical risk,” Nath said, adding that energy trade with the US is likely to remain transactional in oil but increasingly convergent in long-term transition areas such as grid modernisation and nuclear cooperation.
