Oil prices staged a robust comeback on Tuesday, clawing back ground lost after OPEC’s surprise weekend announcement to boost production quotas by more than expected.
WTI surged more than 4% on the day, trading above $59, while Brent gained 3.7%, reaching well above $62. The bounce comes after a bruising April that saw prices crater under the weight of U.S. tariffs and OPEC+ confusion.
OPEC’s weekend move to raise quotas—reportedly by triple what most expected—initially sent prices tumbling. But the fine print matters. Chronic overproducers like Iraq and Nigeria are already pumping over quota, so the new targets mostly legalize the status quo. Actual production isn’t expected to rise much—if at all.
And while Saudi Arabia’s own quota was quietly lifted for May and June, the increase will likely be absorbed by soaring domestic demand as the kingdom heads into its high-consumption summer. Riyadh can’t afford to be seen breaching OPEC+ discipline to feed its own grid, even if it means walking a tightrope between compliance and air conditioning.
Analysts say the rebound is partly technical, but not without merit. Low prices did their usual job—stimulating demand. U.S. PMI data for the services sector came in stronger than expected, offering a hint of resilience in the face of tariffs.
Meanwhile, President Trump added fuel to the geopolitical fire on Monday, claiming lower oil prices put the U.S. “in a good position to settle with Russia” over Ukraine—a not-so-subtle reminder that crude remains a pressure point in the broader standoff.
To top it off, Saudi Arabia hiked its official selling prices to Asia this week, its top market, just as it was ostensibly loosening supply.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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