ADVERTISEMENTAmazon, Google and Meta are just some of the heavyweights to call for more nuclear power production. On the sidelines of a recent conference, the tech giants signed a pledge to support the tripling of global nuclear power by 2050. The declaration follows a similar announcement made by major banks last September — as well as by politicians at COP28.
A total of 31 countries have now signed the pledge to triple nuclear energy capacity by 2050, along with 140 nuclear industry companies. According to the World Nuclear Association (WNA), around 9% of the world’s electricity now comes from nuclear energy, harnessed by 440 power reactors.
The uranium spot price has increased over the last five years, a rise linked to geopolitical tensions and forecasts of greater demand. One factor is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions brought against Moscow.
While Russia is a key global supplier of natural uranium, price pressures are rather linked to the country’s ability to enrich uranium. In most reactors, the raw product must first be milled, converted, and enriched before it can be used as fuel.
According to data from the US government, Russia holds roughly 44% of the world’s uranium enrichment capacity. In terms of US demand for enriched uranium, Russia accounted for 27% of this total (SWU) in 2023.
To turn to data from Euratom, Russia provided 37.9% of the total enrichment work to supply EU utilities in the same year.
Faced with this dependency on Moscow, former US president Joe Biden brought in a law banning uranium imports from Russia in mid-2024. The legislation allowed some shipments to continue until the end of 2027, although Russia then hit back with its own measures — placing a temporary ban on these exports to the US.
“The US and Europe can quite quickly bring on new conversion facilities, but enrichment will be more difficult,” Benjamin Godwin, head of analysis at PRISM, told Euronews.
“Inconsistency in policymaking in both the US and EU does make it difficult for companies to commit to such capital-intensive projects, but, as the Trump administration beds in, there is hope that industry will be given a clearer signal on this,” he added.
One issue, experts claim, is that both power plant operators and fuel suppliers are hesitant to be the first to commit to future projects. Those producing nuclear power don’t want to sign up to long-term supply deals unless they know uranium processing facilities are being built. On the other hand, processors are reluctant to expand unless they have agreements from buyers.
“Conversion, enrichment, and deconversion services are the three steps in the nuclear fuel supply chain that may have their supply challenged by demand in the coming decade,” Craig Stover, senior program manager at the Electric Power Research Institute, told Euronews.
“The largest constraint is on enrichment services, which have the longest lead-time to install capacity for. Based on WNA growth projections, demand for enrichment will outstrip supply in 2035 at current rates,” he explained.
Supplies of natural uranium
As far as natural uranium is concerned, the US’ main suppliers are Canada, Australia, and Kazakhstan. Canada delivered 27% of the US’ yellowcake purchases in 2023, while Australia and Kazakhstan delivered 22% each. Russian-origin material accounted for 12% of total deliveries, according to the US state-run Energy Information Administration (EIA). Only 5% came from the US.
According to Euratom, the EU’s main suppliers of natural uranium in 2023 were Canada (32.94%), Russia (23.45%), and Kazakhstan (21.00%). Domestic supply stood at 0%.
“There is a diverse range of [natural] uranium suppliers located in countries all over the world”, Jamie Fairchild, uranium and nuclear fuel analyst at the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) told Euronews — meaning that this resource isn’t at risk.
ADVERTISEMENT“We expect that increases in uranium prices coupled with growing demand will spur new exploration and improvements in mining operations and processing that will assure adequate supplies for decades to come,” he added.
Following the Fukushima disaster in 2011, when a tsunami flooded a nuclear plant in Japan, uranium prices fell as the public was seized by safety concerns. In recent years, costs have been steadily rising again as nations seek to wean themselves off fossil fuels. The value of companies that mine, refine, produce, and mill uranium and uranium-related materials has risen more than 500% in the last five years.
The growth of artificial intelligence is also contributing to the ‘nuclear renaissance’, with Big Tech pouring money into power plants to feed energy-intensive data centres. While some analysts have suggested that the arrival of DeepSeek’s AI model could cool this demand, Benjamin Godwin predicted otherwise.
“While there is every possibility that developments will make AI more efficient, the use cases for Ai – and AGI when it comes online – are so universal that there will be few aspects of the global economy not impacted by this technology,” he said.
ADVERTISEMENTTariffs on US uranium imports
Even though enrichment services are somewhat constrained, Henry Preston, communication manager for the World Nuclear Association, told Euronews that nuclear power is still less exposed to geopolitical risks than other energy sources.
“Uranium for nuclear fuel can last in the reactor for perhaps a couple of years,” Preston explained, “and then you might have two years’ worth of fuel on the site before refuelling outages”.
These much longer timescales mean that if there is a supply crunch, stockpiles ensure effects are not immediately translated into an energy price spike.
Even so, an uncertain trade environment can affect long-term purchases, as is clear in the case of US President Trump’s current tariff war. Trump plans to put a 10% tariff on energy imports coming from Canada, a move spooking nuclear power companies in the US.
ADVERTISEMENT“A 10% proposed tariff from a major supply source like Canada will effectively raise the uranium price by 10% because if you think about it, US domestic demand is inelastic for contracted volumes,” Grant Isaac, chief financial officer at Cameco, said in February. Cameco is one of the world’s largest uranium producers, based in Saskatoon, Canada.
According to an earlier trading agreement, uranium suppliers like Cameco would have absorbed extra costs linked to Trump’s tariffs — instead of passing them on to US utility firms. This changed in 2018 because of an adjustment to the North American Free Trade Agreement, meaning the US will now take the hit.
“To break the dependence on Russia and other state-owned enterprises, coordinated Western responses are required,” a Cameco spokesperson said late last year, as early tariff threats circulated.
“The announcement from Russia [to block exports to the US] highlights what we have been saying for some time, that the cumulative risks to the supply of nuclear fuel are significant,” the spokesperson added.
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