According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on April 10, the EIA expects total U.S. petroleum products consumption to increase in 2025 and 2026.
Total U.S. petroleum products demand is projected to come in at 20.38 million barrels per day this year and 20.49 million barrels per day next year, the STEO showed. In 2024, this figure averaged 20.31 million barrels per day, the STEO highlighted.
Motor gasoline demand is forecast to contribute 8.90 million barrels per day to the overall 2025 figure, distillate fuel oil is expected to contribute 3.81 million barrels per day, hydrocarbon gas liquids are projected to contribute 3.71 million barrels per day, jet fuel is expected to contribute 1.72 million barrels per day, “other oils” are expected to contribute 1.68 million barrels per day, and residual fuel oil and other hydrocarbons and oxygenates are both expected to contribute 0.28 million barrels per day, the EIA’s April STEO outlined.
Other oils include aviation gasoline blending components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still gas, and miscellaneous products, the EIA noted in its STEO.
Motor gasoline is projected to contribute 8.89 million barrels per day to the overall 2026 U.S. petroleum products demand figure, distillate fuel oil is expected to contribute 3.84 million barrels per day, hydrocarbon gas liquids are projected to contribute 3.78 million barrels per day, jet fuel is expected to contribute 1.73 million barrels per day, “other oils” are expected to contribute 1.65 million barrels per day, other hydrocarbons and oxygenates are expected to contribute 0.33 million barrels per day, and residual fuel oil is projected to contribute 0.28 million barrels per day, the STEO showed.
Global Consumption
World petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption is projected to average 103.64 million barrels per day in 2025 and 104.68 million barrels per day in 2026 in the EIA’s latest STEO. In 2024, this demand averaged 102.74 million barrels per day, the EIA’s April STEO showed.
The OECD total demand is forecast to come in at 45.63 million barrels per day this year and 45.62 million barrels per day next year in the EIA’s latest STEO. The EIA’s U.S. total demand figure of 20.38 million barrels per day for 2025 makes up 44.66 percent of its total OECD demand figure for this year. Its U.S. total demand figure of 20.49 million barrels per day in 2026 makes up 44.91 percent of the EIA’s total OECD demand figure for next year.
Non-OECD petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption is projected to average 58.01 million barrels per day in 2025 and 59.06 million barrels per day in 2026, the EIA’s April STEO outlined.
The EIA states in its April STEO that consumption of petroleum by the OECD countries is the same as petroleum product supplied, defined in the glossary of the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly. It adds that consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD countries is apparent consumption, which includes internal consumption, refinery fuel and loss, and bunkering.
World, USA Production
In its latest STEO, the EIA projects that world petroleum and other liquid fuels production will average 104.10 million barrels per day in 2025 and 105.35 million barrels per day in 2026.
The EIA forecasts in this STEO that 77.08 million barrels per day of the 2025 total will comprise crude oil and 27.02 million barrels per day will be made up of other liquids. The EIA projects in its April STEO that 77.82 million barrels per day of the 2026 total will comprise crude oil and 27.53 million barrels per day will be made up of other liquids.
U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuels production is expected to come in at 23.16 million barrels per day this year and 23.41 million barrels per day next year, the STEO showed. U.S. crude oil production is projected to average 13.51 million barrels per day in 2025 and 13.56 million barrels per day in 2026, the STEO highlighted.
In its April STEO, the EIA pointed out that petroleum and other liquid fuels production figures include crude oil, lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids, other liquids, refinery processing gain, and other unaccounted-for liquids. The STEO highlighted that U.S. crude oil production forecasts include lease condensate.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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