U.S. crude oil production is set to peak at around 14 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2027, according to the Annual Energy Outlook 2025 of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
U.S. oil production is set to remain around the 14 million bpd level by 2030 and in the early 2030s, after which it is expected to decline faster through 2050 as the shale boom fades.
Shale-only oil production in the United States will also peak in 2027, the EIA’s outlook says. In two years, shale output would hit its record of 10 million bpd, up from 9.7 million bpd expected this year. Then shale production is on track to drop to 9.33 million bpd by 2050.
Last year, U.S. crude oil production grew by 2%, or by 270,000 bpd, to average 13.2 million bpd, the EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly showed on Wednesday. Almost all the production growth came from the Permian region, which accounted for 48% of total U.S. crude oil production.
Growth in the U.S. shale patch has slowed in recent years, from the boom years in 2018 and 2019 when total U.S. production was rising by about 1 million bpd annually, thanks to the shale output.
However, some executives and analysts say that peak Permian and peak U.S. crude oil production are close, also due to geological limits and increasing water-to-oil ratios.
Despite record U.S. crude oil production, limits to the growth have started to emerge, executives have acknowledged.
Vicki Hollub, the chief executive of Occidental Petroleum, said at the CERAWeek conference last month, “We think that between 2027 and 2030 it’s likely that the U.S. will see peak production, and after that some decline.”
The U.S. Department of Energy commented on EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2025, blaming the Biden Administration.
The report “reflects the disastrous path for American energy production under the Biden administration – a path that was soundly rejected by the American people last November,” DOE said.
“By unleashing energy that is affordable, reliable, and secure, this administration is ensuring America’s future is marked by energy growth and abundance – not scarcity.”
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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