What happens if Trump pushes to seize Kharg Island

The prospect of a U.S. move to seize Kharg Island, a strategically vital hub often referred to as Iran’s “oil lifeline,” is considered extremely high risk, both from a geopolitical and economic standpoint.

The five-mile-long coral island, which is located about 15 miles off the coast of mainland Iran in the waters of the northern Persian Gulf, has been left untouched through nearly two weeks of U.S. and Israeli-led strikes against Iran.

The Trump administration has discussed seizing the island, according to an Axios report on March 7, citing four unnamed sources with knowledge of the discussions. CNBC has contacted the White House and is awaiting a response.

Kharg Island has been thrust into the global spotlight because it is regarded as one of Iran’s most sensitive economic targets. The terminal accounts for around 90% of the country’s crude exports and has a loading capacity of roughly 7 million barrels per day.

Analysts say that any attempt to attack or seize it would require a ground troop operation, which the U.S. appears reluctant to undertake. An attack would also likely prompt a sustained increase to already soaring oil prices.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has previously refused to rule out deploying American ground forces in Iran but said the U.S. won’t get bogged down in the country.

Francis Galgano, an associate professor and military geography and environmental security specialist at Villanova University in Pennsylvania, said the location of Kharg Island is important because it sits in deep water that enables the approach of oil supertankers.

“I will put on my war hat … if the objective is to win the war (quickly), you destroy or capture Kharg immediately,” Galgano told CNBC by email, adding that any such attempt would create maximum leverage over Tehran.

Nonetheless, taking the small island would be no mean feat, Galgano said. “It would involve moving a considerable number of ground combat troops into the region … I estimate about 5,000 to take and hold the island.”

He added: “All of this of course affects global oil markets, but they are already being affected.”

Oil prices have been extremely volatile since the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on Feb. 28. Iran has retaliated by targeting ships trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, with several incidents reported in recent days.

The narrow waterway is a key maritime corridor that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Roughly 20% of global oil and gas typically passes through it.

International benchmark Brent crude futures with May delivery traded off by 1% at $99.45 per barrel on Friday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with April delivery were last seen 2% lower at $93.81.

If Kharg Island were disabled, analysts at JPMorgan said the loss of Iran’s storage buffer and the scarcity of viable export alternatives would “rapidly trigger upstream shut-ins across major southwest fields.”

“With production near 3.3 mbd and exports around 1.5 mbd, as much as half of national output could be at risk if the hub remains offline, and the previously assumed 20‑day buffer would vanish from day one,” they said in a note published Sunday.

Richard Goldberg, senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a nonprofit research institute considered hawkish on Iran, said he understood the hesitation to do anything that could knock out Iranian oil production at a time when markets are jittery and the potential for regime change is still in play.

“That may change quickly as we take back security control of the Strait of Hormuz and we get a clearer picture if the regime is able to hang on to power a while longer,” Goldberg told CNBC by email.

“At that point we absolutely need to consider disabling the export terminal or otherwise cutting off the regime’s financial lifeline indefinitely,” he added.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday suggested that an end to the Iran war was not imminent, reportedly saying that America “has ammunition and plenty of time” to keep fighting.

His comments come shortly after Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, also struck a defiant tone as he insisted the Strait of Hormuz must remain closed as a “tool to pressure the enemy.”

Iran’s enormous scale and mountainous topography mean the U.S. mobilizing any conventional ground forces in the region would require hundreds of thousands of troops, according to Alex Plitsas, a senior non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank.

“Any use of ground forces would likely be limited to special operations forces for specific missions,” Plitsas said Wednesday in a note, without referring specifically to Iran’s Kharg Island.

— CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.