The war in Iran has dealt a blow to one of Wall Street’s favourite trades — emerging markets.
Stocks and currencies have seen steep losses, with the MSCI equity index posting its biggest weekly drop in six years, and bond yields have jumped. Even so, money managers at firms, including Pacific Investment Management Co, Barings LLC and T Rowe Price Group Inc argue the longer-term case for emerging markets remains intact. While some are tweaking portfolios at the margins, most are holding off on major shifts for now.
Their conviction rests on what investors see as the main drivers behind the emerging-markets rally: a push to diversify from US assets, attractive valuations and solid economic growth. Many believe those themes will reassert themselves once the geopolitical shock fades, and fund flows suggest investors are taking advantage of the dip in prices to buy more securities. Investors added $12.6 billion to emerging-market stocks and bonds in the week through Wednesday, according to a Bank of America Corp report, citing EPFR Global data.
“We’re waiting for more clarity,” said Nick Eisinger, the head of EM sovereign credit strategy at JPMorgan Asset Management. “We like the fundamental story across a lot of EM, but unfortunately the fundamental stories don’t really count for very much right now, so we need this shot to pass.”
Still, the risks are mounting, with Brent crude surging past $90 a barrel and conflict across the Middle East intensifying. The worry is that soaring oil prices will pressure economic growth in countries that rely on imports. As well, a stronger dollar — which has re-emerged as the haven trade of choice — tends to tighten financial conditions and erode returns for emerging-market investors.
JPMorgan Chase & Co cut its recommendations on emerging-market assets three times in the past week, with uncertainty clouding the outlook for the asset class. The bank’s strategists slashed bullish calls to marketweight on foreign exchange and local rates, and moved to tactical underweight positions on sovereign and corporate dollar bonds.
Here’s what other investors see ahead for the asset class. The comments have been edited for length and clarity.
Don’t get too panicked
Bill Campbell, a portfolio manager at DoubleLine Group LP
I’m not in the camp that this fundamentally changes everything, that it’s time to close out all emerging markets. I’m much more in the camp that this is an exogenous shock. As of now, my expectation is it should be contained. In that case, it doesn’t change, a priori, the conditions of a supportive global growth backdrop, EM-DM convergence, and the worries about fiscal and term premium in developed markets. Also, in a world where valuations remain extremely tight, emerging markets offer a lot of value and diversified ways to play investment themes.
If you look across what happened across markets, it was heavily held trades that unwound. So we have some cleaner positions now, and if we get some clarity or some more line of sight on the Iran situation, this could be a fantastic spot to re-engage in EM currencies and EM local rates. I’m trying not to get too panicked and I’m trying to look for opportunities.
