Back in September 2025, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA), a landmark pact elevating their security cooperation to a formal alliance. The agreement dictates that an attack on one nation is considered an attack on both, potentially extending Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia and strengthening joint military intervention. The pact alters the regional security architecture, particularly affecting Iran, India, and Israel, while potentially signaling a shift in Saudi reliance away from the U.S. towards a Pakistan-China-Saudi axis.
And now, Pakistan could find its loyalty to its oil-rich ally tested just months after formalizing its defense alliance.
Pakistan’s foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, this week said that Islamabad had warned Tehran not to strike Saudi territory because the pact treats an attack on either country as an attack on both. The warning came after Iranian drones hit the U.S. embassy compound in Riyadh and attacks targeted Saudi infrastructure, including the Ras Tanura oil complex. Dar said he conveyed the message directly to Iran’s foreign minister during a call over the weekend.
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Unlike last year’s U.S.-launched “Operation Midnight Hammer”, which only elicited a symbolic response from Iran, this time around, “Operation Epic Fury” has triggered a much more aggressive reaction by the OPEC producer following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with Iran launching widespread and intense retaliatory attacks across the Middle East.
Tehran has fired hundreds of Shahed drones and high-speed ballistic missiles targeting Israel and multiple U.S.-allied Gulf nations, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Oman. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and warned of attacks on vessels, forcing a halt to major oil and gas flows and causing global shipping to seek alternative routes. The Saudi Foreign Ministry has confirmed that Iranian attacks targeted the capital and the kingdom’s eastern region. Multiple Iranian drones struck the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh, causing material damage, while the Ras Tanura oil refinery and other Aramco facilities were targeted by drones and projectiles. Saudi forces were able to intercept and destroy the majority of the missiles.
And, Pakistan has certainly taken notice. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar recently revealed that he had warned Iran against aggression towards Saudi Arabia, “I made them (Iran) understand that we have a defence agreement,” Dar told the Financial Times. Last year, Iranian General Mohsen Rezaei reported that Pakistan assured Iran of a nuclear strike against Israel if Israel used nuclear weapons against Tehran. However, Pakistani officials dismissed the statement as baseless and fabricated.
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For now, analysts believe that there’s a low probability that Pakistan will join the war in the Middle East or extend its nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia. For one, SMDA undermines several important global nuclear treaties, including the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). NPT was primarily negotiated by the Eighteen-Nation Disarmament Committee (a UN-sponsored group) and finalized by the United States, the Soviet Union, and the United Kingdom and opened for signature in 1968.
The treaty is the cornerstone of the global nuclear nonproliferation regime, aiming to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, promote cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear energy and advance nuclear disarmament. It is built on three pillars: nonproliferation, disarmament and peaceful use. Nearly all nations in the world have signed the NPT, making it a critical international instrument for global security. The NPT recognizes the United States, Russia, China, France and the United Kingdom as nuclear-weapon states, being the only nations to have detonated a nuclear explosive before 1967. Other nations have agreed not to acquire or produce nuclear weapons in exchange for access to peaceful nuclear technology, such as for electricity generation or medical applications. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is responsible for conducting inspections and monitoring compliance with the treaty to ensure that nuclear programs are used for peaceful purposes only.
However, Pakistan, India, Israel, and South Sudan have never signed the NPT, with Pakistan, India, and Israel widely believed to possess nuclear weapons.
That said, the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) is considered the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons. Unlike the NPT, which aims for non-proliferation and gradual disarmament, TPNW’s goal is total and immediate prohibition from owning nuclear weapons. The treaty became legally binding in January 2021, after reaching the 50-nation ratification threshold. In late 2025, the TPNW reached a “global majority” of UN member states after Kyrgyzstan became a state party. Currently, there are 95 signatories and 74 states that have ratified or acceded to the treaty. Not surprisingly, no nuclear state has signed the treaty. Likewise, Pakistan, India and Israel have not acceded to the treaty.
Pakistan has never officially stated that it extended nuclear protection to Saudi Arabia. Still, SMDA adds firepower to Saudi’s diplomatic moves, with analysts at London-based think tank Chatham House saying that the pact “sets a precedent for extended deterrence”.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com
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