Oil and gas fields are now taking more than 15 years on average to move from discovery to production, roughly three times longer than during the sector’s peak discovery decades, according to new analysis by Global Energy Monitor (GEM).
It said that projects that began operating in 2025 took an average 15.1 years to come online, compared with 4.9 years between 1960 and 1980. The longest average lead times were recorded between 2010 and 2020, when projects took nearly 16 years to reach production. In 2019, the average stretched to 20.7 years, partly due to delayed Russian projects.
The GEM analysis, based on data from the Global Oil and Gas Extraction Tracker (GOGET), attributes the longer timelines to a shift toward deeper, higher-pressure and more technically complex reservoirs. Offshore developments take around three years longer than onshore projects.
“Fifteen-year development cycles mean companies are making long-dated bets on a very uncertain future. At a time when carbon majors face tighter margins and oil prices slump, chasing expensive white elephants seems destined to fail. Spending should be directed toward demand reduction and renewable energy, which have the potential to bring in genuine energy security,” said Scott Zimmerman, GOGET project manager and co-author of the report.
The findings align with recent International Energy Agency (IEA) observations that development timelines are increasing as easily accessible reservoirs are depleted and companies move to smaller, deeper and more technically challenging fields.
The report added that longer project cycles heighten exposure to cost overruns, regulatory changes and demand uncertainty. Under the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions scenario, upstream oil and gas investment declines over time, raising the possibility that projects discovered today could enter production in a significantly different policy environment.
