Russia retained its position as India’s largest crude oil supplier in February, even as Saudi Arabia sharply closed the gap and a widening West Asia conflict now threatens to upend sourcing strategies within weeks.
The government and industry are drawing up contingency plans as risks to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz intensify. Options under discussion include ramping up purchases of Russian crude, ET reported earlier ciitng people familiar with the talks.
Data from Kpler shows Russian crude imports at just over 1 million barrels per day (mbd) in February, down from 1.1 mbd in January and 1.2 mbd in December. Saudi Arabia, however, ramped up shipments by nearly 30 per cent month-on-month to cross 1 mbd — its highest level in almost six years — significantly narrowing the gap with Moscow.
For much of the past two years, Saudi supplies had hovered in the 0.6–0.7 million barrels per day range, making the February spike a notable shift in India’s import mix.
Trump claim vs ground reality
The changing balance comes at a politically sensitive moment. US President Donald Trump has claimed Indian refiners would halt purchases of Russian oil, but February’s data suggests otherwise, with Russia still holding the top spot. The Indian government has maintained that commercial considerations — not geopolitical pressure — will determine sourcing decisions.
West Asia conflict disrupts supply routes
That equation, however, is now being stress-tested by conflict in West Asia.Nearly 2.5–2.7 mbd of India’s crude imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, with a large share sourced from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait. Ongoing military strikes in the region have disrupted cargo movement, forcing Indian refiners to scout for alternatives even as tanker traffic through the Strait remains sparse.
“India’s dependence on crude from West Asia increased over the last two-three months as refiners pivoted away from a portion of Russian volumes,” said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst at Kpler. “As a result, the relative weight of Gulf-origin crude in India’s import basket rose.”
That recent pivot toward the Gulf now looks exposed.
Hormuz disruption threatens supplies
With risks to supply mounting, the government and industry are working on a contingency playbook that could reshape fuel flows and domestic consumption if disruptions persist, ET reported.
Options under consideration include restricting exports of petrol and diesel, increasing imports of Russian crude, and introducing demand-management measures such as LPG rationing.
The urgency reflects the scale of exposure. India exports roughly a third of its petrol, a quarter of its diesel, and about half of its aviation turbine fuel (ATF). In a supply crunch, refiners could divert these volumes to the domestic market.
LPG emerges as weakest link
The most immediate vulnerability is LPG. India imports nearly two-thirds of its LPG needs, with 85–90 per cent coming from the Gulf. Stock levels — including cargoes already en route — are estimated to last less than two weeks if supplies are cut off.
State-run refiners Indian Oil, BPCL and HPCL have already begun boosting LPG output at select refineries. Discussions are also underway on targeted rationing, especially for consumers with access to alternative fuels.
Limited buffers, rising market pressure
Strategic buffers offer limited comfort. India’s crude reserves can cover about 17–18 days of demand, petrol and diesel stocks about 20–21 days, and LNG roughly 10–12 days. Without fresh arrivals through Hormuz, these reserves would steadily decline.
Oil markets are already reacting. Brent crude jumped nearly 10 per cent to around $80 a barrel, while European gas prices surged over 40 per cent following attacks on key energy infrastructure, including Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery and a Qatari LNG facility.
Still, there is uncertainty over how long disruptions may last. Some officials believe Iran may struggle to sustain prolonged escalation, allowing flows to normalise quickly. Trump, however, has warned the conflict could stretch up to four weeks.
“We are continuously monitoring the evolving situation, and all necessary steps will be taken in order to ensure availability and affordability of major petroleum products in the country,” the oil ministry said after a review by oil minister Hardeep Puri.
Russia back in focus as fallback
If Hormuz disruptions persist, Russia could once again become central to India’s energy security calculus.
Officials say additional Russian barrels — already on the water — could be redirected relatively quickly. A tightening global supply situation may also soften Washington’s stance, potentially giving Indian refiners more room to step up purchases from Moscow.
In effect, the same Russian crude that India had partially dialled down in recent months could return as a critical buffer — not by design, but by disruption.
