Oil ends the month on a firm footing as Iran tensions simmer, but muted attention on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting could set the stage for an unexpected production hike.
Friday, February 27, 2026
Oil prices are finishing February on a high note, with the month’s last traded week posting a $1 per barrel gain as US-Iran tensions are mounting. Indirect talks held between Washington and Tehran this week in Geneva yielded no results, and Trump’s ’10- to 15-day’ deadline will be running out soon. Amidst all this, media attention to the upcoming OPEC+ summit is surprisingly tepid, potentially tempting Saudi Arabia to announce yet another OPEC+ production increase for April.
OPEC+ Spoils Oil Bulls’ February Party. According to media reports, OPEC+ members are considering raising the oil group’s production quota by 137,000 b/d, resuming output hikes after a three-month hiatus in Q1, as Riyadh expects a price boost from military tensions between the US and Iran.
Trump Plays Mind Games with Lukoil. The Trump administration has slowed down the sale of international assets owned by Russia’s largest private producer, sanctioned in late October 2025, pushing the initial February 28 deadline to April 1 for a potential $22 billion Carlyle deal to be closed.
US Weakens Oil Pressure on Cuba. The US Treasury Department said it would authorize companies seeking to resell Venezuelan oil to Cuba’s private sector, suggesting that the Caribbean island’s prolonged fuel shortages could be eased, with a gasoline-laden tanker already waiting for departure.
Europe Wants Wider Support for Its Ban. The European Union intends to coordinate its plan to impose a full maritime services ban on Russian crude exports with other G7 countries, having failed to implement the measure as part of its 20th sanctions package, with Greece and Malta remaining vexed.
Saudi Loading Woes Breathe Life into LPG. Asian prices of liquefied petroleum gas soared to their highest since late March 2025, at $600 per tonne, after Saudi Aramco called force majeure on LPG exports from its Juaymah port on the country’s east coast, citing a collapse in a jetty support structure.
Europe Revolts Against Its Own ETS. Italy’s industry minister Adolfo Urso called for the suspension of the European Union’s carbon trading mechanism (ETS), citing ‘perverse’ financial speculation, surprisingly joined by Germany, which called for a quick revamp of Europe’s carbon pricing.
Kazakhstan’s Wounded Giant Returns. Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Erlan Akkenzhenov said that oil production at the country’s largest oil field Tengiz is now close to full capacity after a month-long disruption caused by a power plant fire, still some 15% below the project’s 950,000 b/d plateau.
US Sticks to Maximum Pressure on Iran. Simultaneously to nuclear talks in Geneva, the US Treasury Department has sanctioned 12 more tankers linked to Iran’s petroleum and petrochemical trade, including 5 LPG carriers that aided Iran’s continuously growing trade relations with China.
Top US LNG Exporter Moves into Taiwan. Leading US LNG developer Cheniere Energy (NYSE:LNG) has signed a term 25-year liquefied natural gas supply deal with Taiwan’s CPC, vowing to deliver 1.2 million tonnes of LNG per year, equivalent to 5% of the East Asian country’s annual gas consumption.
China Eyes Multi-Billion Refining Entry. Angola’s state oil company Sonangol is reportedly in talks with several Chinese financial institutions to lock in a giant $4.8 billion loan to finance the construction of its planned 200,000 b/d Lobito refinery, the country’s first borrowing from China since 2017.
Asia Braces for Steep Price Hikes. As US-Iran military tensions ratcheted up medium sour grades across the Middle East, with the Dubai M1-M3 spread up by almost $1.20 per barrel compared to January, buyers of Saudi Arabian barrels are bracing for steep month-over-month hikes in Saudi formula prices.
Qatar Eyes Further LNG Expansions in 2030s. Despite having 48 mtpa of upcoming capacity yet to be commissioned, QatarEnergy is pushing ahead with the engineering, procurement and construction contract for its 16 mtpa North Field West project, awarding it to Technip, eyeing an end-2031 start.
Zimbabwe Export Ban Spark Lithium Rally. The government of Zimbabwe halted exports of lithium concentrate this week, seeking to promote domestic processing and clamp down on illegal shipments of the ore, sending prices worldwide up by more than 5% as Guangzhou futures hit $26,000 per tonne.
Iran Restarts Gas Exports to Its Neighbour. Even if at reduced rates of 7 MCm/day, Tehran has nevertheless restarted exports of natural gas to neighbouring Iraq this week after a two-month-long hiatus that was triggered by Iran prioritizing domestic heating needs over the winter period.
By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com
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