Indian refiners are maintaining a cautious stance on Russian crude purchases after a recent US Supreme Court ruling cast uncertainty over a proposed trade deal that would have reduced tariffs in exchange for curbing Russian oil imports, Bloomberg reported.
People familiar with the matter told Bloomberg, state-run processors have largely stayed away from booking fresh Russian cargoes and are awaiting clarity from the government on the future of such imports. Purchases had already been tapering in recent months amid sustained US pressure.
The Supreme Court’s decision to scrap President Donald Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs has unsettled global trade measures and may give India greater room to manoeuvre, the report said. Refiners are said to be hopeful that the ruling could ease pressure to scale back Russian imports.
The US administration has urged partner nations to honour agreements, including a pact under which tariffs on Indian goods would be lowered to 18 per cent from 50 per cent . Earlier, Trump had said punitive tariffs on India would be reduced in return for a commitment to stop buying Russian oil. Prime Minister Narendra Modi confirmed a broader agreement but did not provide details on crude imports. Indian authorities have not publicly addressed Trump’s specific claim.
India became a key buyer of Russian crude following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, capitalising on steep discounts as Western buyers shunned Russian energy. At peak levels, India was importing around 2 million barrels per day (bpd).
This month, imports of Russian crude are expected to average about 1.2 million bpd, the lowest since November 2022, according to data from Kpler Ltd. The firm projects flows could decline further to 800,000–1 million bpd in March. FGE NexantECA estimates overall imports could fall by as much as 600,000 bpd in March and April.
The slowdown in Indian buying has left millions of barrels of Russian crude floating at sea or being redirected towards China and Singapore, Bloomberg reported. Discounts for Russia’s Urals grade have widened to $15–$20 per barrel below Dated Brent, compared with discounts of over $10 at the start of February.
Some refiners, including Indian Oil Corp. and Bharat Petroleum Corp., have turned to Middle Eastern supplies or issued tenders for April and May deliveries, indicating a possible shift in sourcing. However, this could expose India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, to Middle East supply risks at a time of heightened US military presence in the region and concerns over tensions with Iran, reported Bloomberg.
At the same time, Russian barrels stored on tankers at sea could offer Indian refiners a relatively quick and discounted supply option, should the government permit renewed purchases, it added.
