Oil swung as traders parsed competing headlines on the status of negotiations between the US and Iran.
West Texas Intermediate inched down 0.3% to settle above $65 a barrel, while Brent ended the day below $71, as the US and Iran wrapped up a third round of nuclear talks in Geneva, just days ahead of President Donald Trump’s deadline to strike a deal. Oman, a mediator in the discussions, said that talks are set to continue next week in Vienna at a “technical level,” allaying fears of imminent US military action.
Adding to a wave of bearish momentum just ahead of settlement, Axios reported that a US official described the conversations as “positive,” a sign of cautious optimism that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi echoed in remarks on state television.
Prices had gained earlier in the session after Iran’s state media reported that Tehran won’t allow enriched uranium to leave the country.
The enrichment of uranium remains a key sticking point for both sides, with the Wall Street Journal reporting that Washington asked Tehran to deliver any remaining nuclear fuel to the US. Failure to reach an agreement on this issue raises the specter of potential US military action in the Middle East, a region that accounts for roughly one-third of the world’s crude oil supply.
Oil has been caught between bearish expectations of a global glut this year and heightened geopolitical concerns over Iran.
On Thursday, signs of a softer market emerged, with a key gauge signaling oversupply in Brent crude for the first time outside of an expiry day since 2024. The spread between Brent and WTI, or the difference in price between two of the world’s key crude markers, widened to as much as $5.89 a barrel.
“North Sea markets show signs of weakness, but the market’s focus is on the outcome of Geneva talks,” said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS Group AG.
Trump said he preferred a diplomatic solution regarding Iran’s nuclear program but warned of consequences if no deal was reached. The US has imposed new sanctions on more than 30 entities supporting Iranian oil and weapons sales, ramping up pressure on Tehran ahead of the talks.
As tensions simmer in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia is on course to export the most crude in almost three years this month, while Iran has been rapidly filling up tankers in recent days. Combined flows from Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates are also higher.
The market will be keeping a close eye on the outcome of a scheduled OPEC+ meeting on Sunday set to decide supply policy for April. Some delegates expect a modest production increase, but one official said the outlook was unclear as conflict risks between the US and Iran cloud the outlook.
Oil Prices
WTI for April delivery fell 0.3% to settle at $65.21 a barrel in New York.
Brent for April settlement edged down 0.1% to settle at $70.75 a barrel.
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