Overnight, we also had the January Australian CPI inflation report, which will not be a pleasant read for policymakers at the RBA. Despite the AUD standing as one of the most overstretched currencies to the upside right now, the report triggered a strong move higher versus G10 peers this morning.
Headline YY CPI data rose by 3.8%, matching December’s reading and above the 3.7% median estimate, while MM data increased by 0.4%, below the 1.0% in the prior print but above consensus. The RBA’s preferred measure of inflation – trimmed mean CPI – also came in higher than expected at 3.4%. This marks the highest rate since late 2024 and is the seventh consecutive reading above the RBA’s 2-3% inflation target band. Given this, we have seen a modest hawkish repricing, with investors now assigning a 60% chance that the central bank pulls the trigger and hikes the cash rate again in May – prior to the release, it was about 54%.
Fed Speak: Patience Remains the Watchword
We also had a number of Fed officials hit the wires yesterday, and the message was that the Fed is on hold, data dependent, and not in a rush.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin signalled that rates are likely to stay on hold. Both want more evidence that inflation is heading back to 2.0% before supporting cuts, though Collins flagged later in 2026 as a possible window. Both also played down the economic impact of the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling and Trump’s subsequent counter-tariffs.
Three Fed officials are also on the slate today. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid is the most notable watch, speaking directly on monetary policy and the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Colorado. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin joins a regional panel in Northern Virginia, while St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem takes part in a discussion on the Fed’s regional role in Missouri. Barkin’s appearance is worth monitoring, given his comments yesterday signalling patience on rates.
Nvidia Earnings: The Moment Markets Have Been Waiting For
Aside from the Fed speakers later today, the market’s radar will now firmly shift to Nvidia’s (NVDA) fiscal Q4 26 earnings report, expected to air after the market closes today. I am sure I do not need to say how important and widely watched these numbers are for the markets.
Given the Stock’s mammoth weightings in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, this report could heighten volatility across the major US benchmarks.
NVDA remains the bellwether for whether the AI infrastructure build-out is a sustainable structural shift or a front-loaded bubble. If the results disappoint, this could weigh on Stocks; conversely, if they surprise to the upside, this may underpin the market. As of writing, one-day implied volatility for the Stock is around a 6.0% move in either direction.
Technically, the Team here highlighted that since late November last year, the NVDA Stock has been ranging between approximately US$195.00 and US$170.00 on the daily scale. Basic chart studies tell me that, given the price left range support unchallenged and effectively found a mid-range floor from a low of US$179.18, this suggests buyers are gaining strength within this consolidation. With the Stock now shaking hands with range resistance and showing limited bearish intent in this area, a breakout to the upside could be on the table, a move that could help the Stock aim for all-time highs of US$212.19.
