India is poised to import the highest volume of crude oil from Saudi Arabia in more than six years this month, as sustained US pressure weighs on purchases of Russian barrels, Bloomberg reported on Friday.
Shipments from Saudi Arabia are expected to rise to between 1 million and 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd), the highest level since November 2019, Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst at Kpler told Bloomberg. The projected volumes are broadly comparable to Russia’s supplies to India, marking a significant narrowing of the gap between the two major suppliers.
US pressure intensified earlier this month after President Donald Trump claimed that India had agreed to stop buying Russian oil as part of a trade deal — an assertion that New Delhi has not publicly confirmed or denied.
Even if Russian flows touch the upper end of Kpler’s estimate at 1.2 million bpd this month, Russia would remain India’s largest supplier, but the margin over Saudi Arabia would be considerably smaller than in recent years.
India emerged as a key buyer of Russian crude after Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, when Western sanctions led to steep discounts on Russian oil. At its peak, India imported around 2 million bpd of Russian crude.
However, Russian supplies are forecast to decline further next month to between 800,000 and 1 million bpd, according to Kpler. Volumes could also be affected by a maintenance shutdown in April and May at a refinery operated by Nayara Energy Ltd, which relies entirely on Russian crude following European Union sanctions.
For Moscow, a decline in Indian demand would weaken one of its most important alternative markets after losing European buyers. For Saudi Arabia, higher exports to India would help it regain influence in one of the world’s fastest-growing oil-consuming markets.
