US Economic Calendar to Spotlight the Fed
US futures posted modest gains during the Asian session on February 20. The Dow Jones E-mini advanced 44 points, while the Nasdaq 100 E-mini and the S&P 500 E-mini climbed 42 points and 11 points, respectively.
Later in Friday’s session, Services PMI and the Personal Income and Outlays report will affect market bets on a June Fed rate cut. A pickup in service sector activity and an upswing in the Core PCE Price Index would temper expectations of a June Fed rate cut. However, traders should consider the personal income and spending figures. Lower income and weaker spending would signal a softer inflation outlook.
While markets are typically sensitive to the Personal Income and Outlays report, the figures are for December, which may limit market volatility. However, the Services PMI will be key, with traders also needing to consider output price trends, a key contributor to US inflation.
Beyond the data, traders should closely monitor FOMC members’ reactions to the US economic data. Support for a June rate cut after softer US inflation would lift demand for US stock futures.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a June Fed cut fell from 62.3% on February 12 to 58.0% on February 20. Nevertheless, markets still expect two Fed rate cuts in 2026, with a year-end target rate of 3.00%-3.25%, key to the bullish medium- to longer-term outlook for US stock futures.
Key Technical Levels for Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500
Despite the morning gains, the Nasdaq 100 E-mini and the S&P 500 E-mini remained below their 50-day EMAs, while holding above their 200-day EMAs. The EMA positions indicated a bearish near-term but bullish longer-term outlook. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones E-mini held above its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, signaling a bullish bias that aligns with favorable fundamentals.
Near-term trends will hinge on the upcoming US economic indicators, central bank chatter, and Middle East developments. Key levels to monitor include:
Dow Jones
Resistance: 50,000, the February 10 record high of 50,611, and then 51,000.
Support: the 50-day EMA (49,068), and then 48,500.
